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China's Recovery Continues: Property Market's Led Growth

      The CSI300, which tracks yuan-denominated A-share performances on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, surged toward the 3,000 barrier in May. The index, compiled by the China Securities Index Company, Limited, rose to 2,950 on June 4, an increase of more than 8 percent month- on-month.

      China’s property markets showed additional signs of recovery over previous weeks based on new data released by the country’s largest listed property developer, China Vanke. The company stated that during the first week of June its property sales rose by 19.7 percent from a year earlier to 6.41 billion yuan (US$938.2 million). The volume of space sold during May was up by 19.3 percent year-on-year, to 697,000 square metres.

      Despite the international economic downturn that began in 2008, China’s property market was buoyed by a five-month rally in 2009, with figures from Vanke showing a 20.2 percent sales increase to 23.89 billion yuan (US$3.58 billion) compared with the same period in 2008.

      Stocks of real-estate companies listed on the Shanghai Composite Index are trading at 37.41 times reported earnings, a rise of 122 percent, compared to 16.11 times at the beginning of the year.

      Markets rallied on continued positive news, with China Vanke experiencing its first week-long gain since November 14, 2008, to 11.02 yuan (US$1.65) as of the first week of June. Poly Real Estate Group, the second-largest publicly traded real-estate company recorded a single day increase of 9 percent in the first week of June after Hong Kong-based The Standard stated that China property prices were expected to increase in the second half of the year.

      Beijing Capital Land also recorded advancing sales in the first five months of 2009, a total increase of 210 percent from a year ago, selling 2.86 billion yuan (US$564.9 million) worth of apartments, an increase of 300 percent year-on-year to 422,000 square metres. The company released a sales target of 6 billion yuan (US$900 million) for 2009.

      Additional positive news included a manufacturing expansion for the third month in a row, suggesting stronger potential for a rebound for the second half of 2009.

      Across the board positive signs for Chinese banks and industrials can also be seen, with Pudong Bank, the Chinese partner of Citigroup, surging 10 percent in early June, the most since November 10, 2008. China’s biggest lender, Industrial & Commercial Bank of China also added more than 4 percent during the same period because of news of fresh capital flowing into the Chinese market.

      George Soros, chairman of Soros Fund Management, was quoted by the Shanghai Daily stating that China will be the first country to recover from the global financial crisis. He said that China’s extensive capital controls have helped shield its financial institutions from the worst of the global financial crisis, and the 4 trillion yuan stimulus (US$586 billion) has helped the economy.

      Signs of restocking are evident in metals producers after a de-stocking period during the first quarter, resulting in a wide range of growth including the Aluminum Corporation of China, the largest maker of aluminium, growing by 4 percent, and the Zijin Mining Group, China’s largest gold producer, also advancing by more than 4 percent.

五月股市：警惕中前行

文/胡瑶

      A股市场自2008年11月反弹以来，两市股指连创新高。上证指数在2009年5月初成功重返2600点整数关口，深证成指更是踏上万点大关，新增A股开户数升至29万户。整个5月，沪深300指数一往无前的冲高，直逼3000点关隘，这个反映沪深两个市场整体走势的“晴雨表”在2009年6月4日更是上冲至2950点，月涨幅达8％。

      从2008年受国际金融危机影响以来，中国房地产市场进入2009年后已经连续5个月销售持续回暖。同时，随着A股5个月连续上涨，不断创出反弹新高，房地产股也应声反弹，一路上扬，间接印证了楼市回暖。2009年5月，中国多座城市的商品房成交量仍然维持在较高水平，且环比仍呈增长态势。厦门、杭州同比增幅均超过200%，分别达到319.0%和223.3%；北京同比增幅超过100%。

      中国最大的上市地产公司——万科集团于2009年6月初公布了企业近期的销售数据：2009年5月，万科集团实现销售面积69.7万平方米，销售金额64.1亿元，分别比2008年同期增长了19.3%和19.7%。另外，2009年1—5月，万科集团累计的销售面积达到281.7万平方米，销售金额为238.9亿元，分别比2008年同期增长27.4%和20.9%。房地产龙头企业之一——保利地产也是强势突破，在2009年6月初创下了单天涨幅达9％的最高纪录，并保持在上升通道中。首创置业也实现了不少突破，2009年1—5月，其旗下的楼盘签约面积共达42.2万平方米，签约金额达38.6亿元。其中，5月实现签约面积达14万平方米，签约金额13.1亿元，创下该企业的历史新高。

      随着中国政府发布的下调保障性住房和普通商品住房投资项目的资本金比例15个百分点，沪市相关地产股市盈率达37.41倍, 相比2009年初的16.11倍上涨了122％。在金融保险板块，受到有关中国资本市场将有新资本注入消息影响，浦东银行在2009年6月初上涨了10％，涨幅为2008年11月以来之最；工商银行同期涨幅也超过4％；2009年6月3日当天，浦发银行尾盘强势封上涨停，封单高达30余万手，相当于近10亿元资金封涨停；招商银行也涨了8%，银行股被全面引爆。

      受到中国政府将出台高达3万亿元的新能源政策计划影响，A股市场资源类股被再度热炒。2009年5月的大宗商品市场十分火爆，石油、黄金、有色金属等大宗商品期货价格连续大涨，其中石油价格已达每桶66美元以上，黄金价格达到每盎司980美元，有色金属板块也有不少品种的价格创出年度新高，推动了相关上市公司股价的上涨。

      中国人民大学金融与证券研究所所长吴晓求在发表的名为《五月股市红与黑》报道中表示，三大因素支撑了本轮行情，首先是通过资产配置需求而推动起来的全球市场大反弹。其次是市场因素和国内因素，流动性的增加以及投资者信心的恢复无疑都在推动这轮市场大幅度上涨。索罗斯基金管理公司主席乔治·索罗斯表示相信中国有望率先走出经济衰退低谷。他预计中国可望在2009年年末首先复苏，并带动全球经济在2010年恢复增长。