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Property Market: Fundamentals Suggest Renewed Strength

      According to the Report on the Work of the Chinese Government delivered by Premier Wen Jiabao to the 2009 session of the Chinese Parliament, the NPC, the government will ease its credit controls in 2009, generating new loans of 5 trillion yuan (US$735 billion) for Chinese companies.

      Still, this is unlikely to slake the thirst for capital of players in the real estate market in China, which has experienced a boom, a bubble, a burst bubble, economic decline and now a slight rebound all in the past two years. Questions remain, however, about the strength of the rebound in a time of economic decline worldwide, and the real estate industry in China is experiencing a difficult time. The biggest difficulty is a shortage of capital, especially for small real estate companies without reliable cash flows.

      If China’s real estate market follows international real estate development practices, market prices should decline after reaching a peak; in China the most recent peak came at the end of 2007. Since 2008, the Chinese Government has taken action to bring a halt to “crazy” price increases. Adjustments will continue this year, when competition among real estate companies is expected to be more fierce, resulting in companies with good cash flows or loan qualifications winning bigger market shares.

      In 2003 to 2007, the real estate market in China was characterized by great increases in prices and transaction volumes. Since 2008, the market has turned downward, and this year is expected to remain sluggish. However, as China's economic performance, taken as a whole, is improving, the market is expected to recover at the end of this year.

Depressed Market, Bright Future

      In China, growth in real estate investment usually tracks along with the growth of capital assets investment and GDP (gross domestic product). It is easy to realize that real estate investment climaxes with peaks in economic development; with economic downturns, real estate investment falls.

      To increase cash flows in the market, the Chinese Government will lower interest rates and deposit-reserve ratios. Thanks to these measures, the real estate market will gradually turn better. This will first be reflected in transaction-volume increases rather than prices. If the market rebounds in the second half of this year, more favourable polices could be launched.

      Considering the great potential of China’s economy and the large needs of Beijing’s real estate market, prices will increase and to the benefit of investors.

Luxury Residential Market: “Wait and See.”

      The high-end housing market remained soft with institutional and individual investors taking a “wait-and-see” attitude in the first quarter of 2009. The overall vacancy rate for it has continued to increase since the end of 2008, as many companies cut operational costs and housing allowances.

      The high-end housing market includes villas, luxury apartments and serviced apartments. According to statistics provided by Colliers International Beijing, the Millennium Residences and Forte International Apartment (formerly known as Shiy HWA Centre) were completed in the first quarter of 2009, adding 329 units of serviced apartments and 370 luxury apartments. With the aforementioned new completions, total stocks of Beijing high-end residential properties expanded to 50,942 units, up 1.39 percent quarter-on-quarter or 28.22 percent year-on-year.

      Prices of such properties rose at a relatively slow rate during the first quarter of 2009, according to statistics from the Beijing Real Estate Transaction Management Web site. As with Sanlitun SOHO's price rose to 39,302 yuan (US$5,780) per square metre in March 2009 from 36,514 yuan (US$5,370) in 2008. This growth can be attributed mainly to the policy stimulation initiated in early 2009.

      In March 2009 in Beijing, 370 villas were sold, an increase of 320.45 percent over February. Townhouses and semi-detached houses below 5 million yuan (US$735,300) in value were more popular than detached houses. Villas in Shunyi District ranked first.

      Though villas can better withstand an economic downturn, it is important for investors to select an appropriate time to buy in. The vacancy rate of villas in Beijing was as high as 32.66 percent in the first quarter of 2009, and the net effective yield of the market should fall to 3.70 percent for the whole year.

      With the influence of the ongoing global financial crisis, leasing demand for hign-end properties continued to weaken in the first quarter of 2009. Some multi-national corporations postponed or withdrew investment in their Beijing operations while a few even closed their representative offices, as was the case of America Online (AOL). As a result, the vacancy rate of the local high-end housing market increased from 31.06 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008 to 31.8 percent in the first quarter of 2009. In Breakdown: villas, luxury apartments, and serviced apartments reported vacancy rates of 32.66 percent, 29.51 percent and 38.83 percent. It is estimated that the “wait-and-see” situation will not change in a short time, and the overall vacancy rate will be 33.35 percent for 2009 and 30.18 percent for 2010.

Office Market: High Vacancy Rates, Low Rentals

      According to Savills, the new supply of Grade A office space in Beijing in 2009 will total more than 1.6 million square metres. This will inspire competition in the office market, and will lead to further decreases in rentals. As 48 percent of the new supply of office space is in and around the city’s Central Business District (CBD), the vacancy rate of office space in the CBD may reach 35 percent at the end of 2009. 

      Six new projects in the Grade B office market were completed, adding a total gross floor area of 204,246 square metres.

      The new supply of office space will peak in June 2009, with some ten large office buildings launching or ready to rent.

      Most multi-national corporation tenants have cut their office-operation budgets; the pressure on landlords to get sufficient tenants became intense, resulting in an apparent decrease in asking rents across the board with some cases down by as much as 20 percent. Also, more concessions in rentals and leasing terms were introduced to maintain and attract tenants. According to CB Richard Ellis (CBRE), during the first quarter of this year, rentals of Grade A office space in Beijing decreased 4.9 percent to 190.7 yuan (US$28.04) per square metre per month.

      A DTZ report on Beijing’s Grade A office market also reveals that the market down slide will continue in the next few months of 2009.

      Facing the pressure of cutting corporate operational costs, many tenants began to reconsider leasing expenditures, generating a significant increase of site inspections during the quarter. However, the number of leasing transaction was limited with some major large transactions taking place in those low rental office properties in non-traditional office submarkets. Many multi-national corporations have either put relocation decisions on hold or have chosen to renew office leasing contracts.

      With the influx of new completions in the next two years taken into account, along with the negative effects of the global financial crisis, the overall vacancy rate of the Beijing office market is expected to rocket in 2009 and 2010.

International Retailers Decelerating Expansions

      The global economic recession and the local economic slow-down was felt in Beijing’s retail market in the first quarter of 2009, as exhibited by the fact that some international retailers decelerated their expansions in Beijing, and high-end retail products were on sale with bigger discounts. Beijing’s overall mid- to high-end shopping centre property market slumped as vacancies increased and rental declined in most catchments. Dwindling demand was also earmarked on the back of low leasing rates and stagnant progress amidst new schemes.

      Retailers inclined to choose sites at sophisticated shopping centres in order to keep the operational risks off the curve under the existing economic climate, resulting in an upgrade in leasing competition and that landlords postponed the completions and opening dates of new properties, as were the cases of Dazhongsi Mall and Huaxi Chang’an Mall.

      The global financial crisis have forced many retailers to shelve or shrink their expansion blueprints. According to a recent survey by a Chinese industry association, the domestic top-100 chain enterprises expected to slow their growth of new store openings by 30 percent, while foreign retailers would most likely continue to wait. The net absorption of the Beijing mid- to high-end shopping centres dropped by 50.4 percent quarter-on-quarter to 43,590 sq.m.

      Despite of weakened leasing demand, some retailers from the fashion, watch, accessories, electronics, cosmetics and heath and beauty sectors continued to pose aggressive aspirations for prime retail space, taking advantage of the current negotiation opportunities and signed leasing contracts for either new store openings or relocations in the quarter.

      This can be underpinned by the fact that CK Jeans, Design Gallery, Dazzle and Jorya would open their new stores in the Mall at the Oriental Plaza; and DHC, Love & Love and City Chain signed up a certain amount of retail space at Beijing APM. These acts demonstrated that some retailers, either overseas or domestic, continued to be confident with the future consumption pattern of the growing purchasing power in Beijing, which was also evidenced by the other representative transactions in Table 2.

      The financial crisis tightened consumers’ belts, making their shopping behaviour more rational and selective. As a result, retailers from different trades, including fashion, department store, home and lifestyle, catering and furniture, redrew their demand size for retail space and posted new characteristics of their demand. In the long run, Beijing’s retail investment market should still be an attractive investment division, especially for those developers or investors with sophisticated operation strategies.

市场深化调整继续

2009北京楼市展现向上张力

文/陈建波

      基于2009年是国家实施4万亿元投资计划最重要的一年，再考虑各省投资计划，2009年5万亿元的信贷额增长远不能解投资饥渴。因而，从整个行业发展状况来看，困扰房地产商的资金问题短期内很难解决。对于处境艰难中小房企而言，需要更多地积极探寻民间融资、项目股权合作、甚至壮士断腕折价出让土地。因此，在资金缺口及政策推动下，预计2009年房地产市场调整将继续深化，新一轮优胜劣汰不可避免，优质房企获取更多青睐。

      回顾历史不难发现，中国房地产市场在2003—2007年间出现了一个小周期。结合国外发达国家的房地产周期来判断，2008年中国房地产进入下行周期，2009年整体市场仍将处于下行周期中。因而，2009北京房地产市场的整体发展方向为：深度盘整并在后期展现向上的张力。

短期低迷，长期发展前景广阔

      从中国历年经济发展情况来看，房地产投资的增长率与固定资产投资增长率和GDP增长率具有较强的同步性。且房地产投资周期的每次波峰出现，都是在经济增长刺激下出现。此外，房地产投资可以先于固定资产投资和宏观经济走出低谷，并迅速进入繁荣状态；但同时也可看到，在经济处于上行阶段，房地产投资增长同样会出现下滑。从这两个方面的表现来看可知，中国房地产市场的运行受经济状况和政策调控的影响非常大。

      受金融危机影响，当前市场流动性出现了萎缩迹象。在中央决策层大举刺激流动性释放的政策效应下，2008年11月人民币各项贷款增加4769亿元，同比多增3895亿元，而2009年1月的信贷更是突破1.6万亿元。此外，2008年全年的贷款新增额也接近5万亿元，预计2009年中国新增信贷规模预期在4.6万亿元以上。因此，预期2009年的宽松货币发挥空间较大，尤其是利率和存款准备金率的下调通道将被进一步打开。再考虑到全球央行联手救市，向市场注入流动性以缓解经济萧条的态势。最终，在经济回稳、市场激活之后，将不可避免地出现国家刺激经济的后遗症——通货膨胀。

      一般而言，宏观经济周期与房地产波动呈同向发展趋势，只是在波动时序上略有区别，房地产周期略早于宏观经济周期。整体而言，2009年楼市仍处于下行周期中，市场价格有回调压力，基本上会在底部盘整。那么，复苏并不能以“价格上涨”来呈现。2009年北京楼市的复苏将首先从成交量开始。在当前诸多利好政策的背景下以及后续利好仍将不断出台的情况下，市场观望氛围可望逐步散去，考虑政策效应6个月左右的时滞因素，预计最早在2009年上半年结束时就能看到楼市回暖的曙光。

因此，从长远来看，随着宏观经济环境的改善，基于北京经济增长依然强劲，再加上城市宜居性、城市化进程的影响，北京楼市刚性需求非常大，北京的投资吸引力依然很强，则房地产市场的未来发展空间仍然广阔。

高端住宅表现疲软  观望氛围浓厚

      以2009年第1季度北京高端住宅市场的成交量和租赁需求来看，北京高端住宅市场仍表现疲软。具体表现在机构投资者和个人住房购买者的观望情绪犹存；许多公司降低运营成本和住房补贴的政策打压了季内高端住宅的租赁需求，致使北京整体高端住宅市场的空置率自2008年年末至2009年第1季度内继续上升。按照物业种类来看，北京高端住宅市场主要涉及别墅、豪华公寓和服务式公寓三种形态。与普通住宅相比，高端住宅的单套总价应该在120万元以上。据高力国际的最新统计数据显示：2009年第1季度，北京高端住宅新增供应包括来自位于CBD区域内329套的北京千禧服务式公寓和370套的复地国际公寓(曾用名世华国际中心)。此外，由于上述新竣工项目的注入，北京高端住宅市场的存量扩大至50942套，环比增幅1.39%，同比增幅28.22%。

      然而，来自北京房地产交易管理网的信息显示，与2008年的销售均价相比，北京2009年1—3月的豪宅市场成交价格已经有所上浮，但上涨幅度并不明显。以三里屯区域来看，三里屯SOHO在2008年的成交均价是每平方米36514元，而2009年3月上旬的成交均价则达到每平方米39302元。位于太阳宫区域的裘马都园，在2009年前的销售均价为每平方米29832元，而目前的最新报价是每平方米31000元的均价。同样，地处朝青板块的星河湾也在销售价格上有所上涨，在2008年第4季度的均价为每平方米28915，目前的最新均价则为每平方米30330元。

      分析人士认为，北京高端住宅市场的悄然领涨，与前期的救市政策存在很大程度关系。但是从目前市场上公布的豪宅入市情况来看，北京高端住宅市场的价格上涨空间还有多少，很大程度依赖市场的需求是否旺盛。以别墅市场来看，根据北京房地产交易管理网的数据显示，2009年3月，北京市别墅销售套数为370套，比2月上涨320.45%；成交面积为131118平方米，比2月上涨385.16%；成交总金额近14.89亿元。而整个2009年第1季度达到600余套，基本与行情较好的2007年持平。

      统计资料显示，支撑2009年第1季度北京别墅市场交易的以总价低于500万元的联排、双拼或者小独栋别墅产品为主。根据易居中国的统计显示，截至2009年3月22日，位于顺义区的富力湾销售了63套，套数名列第一，平均每套400万元左右；富力丹麦小镇售出53套，成交均价每套360万元；尚东庭销售了38套，成交均价每套160万元；天鹅堡成交均价为每套220万元左右。然而，业界同时提醒，别墅市场的抗跌性能虽好，但也需选择时机入市，才能获得更高的投资价值。来自高力国际数据显示，2009年第1季度，北京别墅的空置率仍然高达32.66%，豪华住宅项目的净投资收益率也将下滑到3.70%。此外，鉴于持续的金融危机和本地经济地继续下滑，北京豪华住宅市场的租赁需求在季内继续表现疲软。受金融危机的影响，北京市场内跃现一些跨国公司推迟或取消在京追加性投资，甚至撤销其办事处，因此，北京整体高端住宅市场的空置率从2008年第4季度的31.06%上升至2009年第1季度的31.8%。按物业种类分析，别墅、豪华公寓和服务式公寓的空置率分别达32.66%, 29.51%和38.83%。

      预计2009年第2季度开盘的项目有亿城西山华府、远洋万和城、珠江壹千栋，但均为老盘的后期项目。考虑到疲软的需求结构很难在短时间内改变，北京高端住宅市场的整体空置率将在2009年和2010年分别达到33.35%和30.18%。

写字楼空置率攀升 租金水平受压

      “北京2009年甲级写字楼的新增供给量将超过160万平方米，相当于2008年末存量的22%，这将加剧原本就很激烈的市场竞争环境，也使租金面临更大的下滑压力。”第一太平戴维斯分析人士预计，其中有48%新增供给量位于CBD及其它周边地区，因此CBD及周边区域空置率将有可能在2009年末攀升至35%以上，也就是说，CBD三分之一以上的写字楼是空置的。来自高力国际的数据表明，2009年第1季度，北京乙级写字楼市场共有6个项目竣工，总建筑面积达到204246平方米。其中3个项目只租不售，包括CBD区域的东方梅地亚C、D座，其它区域的雍贵中心和红都商务中心，共为市场新增114138平方米的写字楼租赁面积。

      进入2009年6月，北京写字楼市场迎来了2009年上半年供应量的小高峰。与2009年前几个月相比，6月的写字楼开盘及入住的项目数量明显增多，且多是体量较大的项目。工三、金贸中心、金泰国际大厦、侨福芳草地等项目集中开盘，而WHOSE（恒奥中心）、中海广场、德胜凯旋广场、新华联国际等项目也预计6月入住。

      由于许多跨国公司压缩其办公运营预算，业主吸引租户的压力增大，因此普遍降低租金报价，部分降幅高达20%。众多业主已开始在租金和租约中让步，以期在全球性经济持续下滑并对对本地写字楼需求造成冲击的背景下维持现有租户和吸引新租户。根据仕邦魏理仕的统计，2009年第1季度，北京优质写字楼市场的租金较上季度下降4.9%，为每月每平方米190.7元，而市场平均空置率较2008年第4季度回落0.9个百分点，达到21%。第一太平戴维斯预测，2009年北京甲级写字楼平均租金将继续下滑，可能回落到2007年的水平，即比2008年第4季度降15%左右。此外，DTZ戴德梁行在2009年1月发布的《2009年北京甲级写字楼租赁市场报告》也曾指出：2008年第4季度，北京写字楼市场净吸纳量比第3季度降低95.2％，同时空置率继续上升，2008年末市场平均空置率为13.25％，写字楼租赁市场由此转入下行趋势。

      由于金融危机的影响，北京写字楼的整体吸纳量呈现出锐减的态势。实际成交案例极为有限，主要大单限于非传统主要写字楼区域内租金水平较低的写字楼。目前的市场环境下，许多跨国企业选择了续约或暂缓其搬迁计划。总之，从2009年上半年北京写字楼市场的行情来看，北京写字楼市场整体空置率将继续攀升，租金水平则有进一步下降的态势。

国际零售商放缓在京步伐  整体表现下滑

      全球经济衰退与本土经济增长放缓对北京商铺物业的影响在2009年第1季度内开始显现，主要表现在一些国际零售商放缓在中国和北京扩张的步伐；高端购物中心整体市场表现下滑，新增供应出租率较低，各商圈空置率上升伴随租金水平下降；许多品牌零售商在目前的经济状况之下，更青睐入驻成熟的购物中心以规避经营风险，致使新增项目招租难度越发加大。因此，项目竣工和开业时间推迟现象在2009年第1季度内表现普遍。

      “停滞”表现在商业项目的推进过程中。在北京，2008年预计新增商业物业面积大概为600万平方米，但是全年包括西单大悦城、华贸购物中心、银泰购物中心等在内，真正入市的新开商业面积不足300万平方米。而大钟寺国际广场、万贸购物中心、首地大峡谷、华熙长安mall等已经落成的商业项目，也由于种种原因纷纷推迟了项目整体开业的时间。

      商业地产“停滞”的另一个表现是已经投入运营的项目，也在招租、招商、销售等方面陷入了困境，由此导致空置率的上扬与租金的下浮。如2009年入市的金宝汇和国瑞购物中心仍处于试营业状态，与2008年开业伊始即获得较高入住率的银泰中心、三里屯village南区相比之下，商场内仅有部分店铺开始营业，不少店铺仍处于装修甚至是招租状态。数据显示：2009年第1季度内，位于王府井商圈的金宝汇购物中心和位于崇文门地区的国瑞购物中心开始试营业，分别为北京中高端购物中心市场新增46000平方米和130000平方米的供应量。

      进入2009年，金融危机对零售商的影响较早前更为明显，使众多不同背景的零售商搁置或缩小其扩张蓝图。据中国某行业协会的近期报道，国内连锁百强企业新开店铺数量增速将减缓3成，国外零售商的观望期亦会持续。高力国际的统计数据表明，2009年第1季度，北京中高端购物中心的市场净吸纳量下降至43590平方米，按季下跌50.4%。尽管商铺市场的租赁需求放缓，本季度内仍有来自时尚服饰、餐饮、钟表、饰品、电子产品和化妆品等行业的零售商抓住当前的议价时机，签订新租赁协议或续租，以获取优质店面。CK Jeans、Design Gallery、Dazzle、Joyra等品牌将在东方新天地开新店；而DHC、Love & Love和City Chain分别在新东安广场租赁店面。这些举措亦代表一部分零售商，无论来自海外还是本土，仍对北京的消费实力充满信心，下面表格中所列季内主要成交案例亦可见一斑。金融危机的影响已经开始勒紧消费大众的钱包，消费者行为亦会因此而变得更为理性，这就使时尚、百货、家居、餐饮、家具等不同业态的零售商对商铺面积呈现不同的需求特征。长远来看，北京的商铺物业投资市场仍是一个具有吸引力的投资领域，尤其是对于掌握经营策略的发展商或投资者来说。

      综上所述，预计2009年北京的房地产市场可能会延续2008年年末的低迷状态，市场观望气氛仍将持续，预计成交量暂时难以出现大的回升。由于中国政府自2008年10月以来出台的降息、降税、放宽二套房购房等政策的落实，对房地产市场成交量有一定的促进作用，部分购房刚性需求也将会在2009年得到释放，但出现大幅回升有一定困难。而从房地产市场整体价格走势来看，2009年北京房地产市场整体价格水平有可能出现阶段性的回调趋势，特别是非核心区域的供需发展不平衡，将导致其价格必然向真实价值回归。由于市场中很多开发企业迫于资金压力，通过下调价格促进销售回笼资金。以住宅市场为例，由于政策性住房2009年供应力度加大，也会拉低整体住宅的成交均价。因此，2009年住宅成交价格将维持在2008年末的水平，不会出现大的波动。