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To Buy or Not to Buy, THAT IS THE QUESTION

        Owning a home in Beijing is a dream of most local residents and many from other parts of China or the world who reside here. But the light of the dream began to flicker when housing prices soared in 2006 and 2007, leaving even middle-class income earners unable to afford to buy a home. But when Beijing’s housing prices finally levelled off and even began falling in August and September 2008, hope was rekindled that many dreams of home ownership might come true. Yet, as soon as buyers re-entered the slumping market, prices rebounded. By early 2009 prices were back to pre-slump levels. Some believe the prices had hit bottom and that the rebound signals strength in the housing market. Others believe higher prices will be a result of a short-lived revival, with more fluctuations in the market to be expected. What is the situation now? This article will provide you with insight into the current market.

        Ms. Lou is unhappy. After finding a 90-square-metre (sq.m) home she wanted to buy and reaching agreement on its price with its owner, the owner deferred on closing until he returned from a business trip. When the owner returned, he said his property agent had advised him to increase his sale price before closing the deal. If Lou really wanted her dream home, she would have to cough up an additional 100,000 yuan (US$15,000) to seal the deal.

        Over the past two to three months, experiences such as Ms. Lou’s have not been uncommon. Since March 2009, first-and-second-hand home sellers have started asking for more, and home prices are rising: some developers have increased unit sales prices of projects in Beijing by 20 percent or more. Second-hand home sellers are following the trend.

        In the Wangjing area where housing prices have fluctuated since the global economic crisis began weighing on the incomes of Korean residents of Beijing, a 110 sq.m two-bedroom, second-hand apartment sold for about 1 million yuan (US$150,000) at the beginning of 2009. Now, owners are seeking 1.4 million yuan to 1.6 million yuan. An apartment in the Lishuiqiao area outside the North Fifth Ring Road sold for about 9,000 yuan (US$1,350) per sq.m at the end of 2008, but is now marketed at 11,000 yuan to 12,000 yuan (US$1,650 to $1,800).

        Increased prices reflect 2009’s heightened demand. In the first four months of 2009, 4.66 million sq.m of commodity housing (homes sold on the open market, not including subsidized housing) was sold, 1.6 times more than the same period in 2008, even if these deals were completed at lower prices.

        When the higher prices of 2006 and 2007 began to moderate in 2008, the housing market lost some of its momentum. Even though it continued to generate an upward trend, the pace of growth was much slower. Many potential home buyers closed their purses, preferring to wait and see what might happen next.

        Then, in August 2008, second-hand housing prices began to fall. For the first time since 2005, the price of new housing fell by about a third of a percentage point in September. The descent in prices continued until March 2009 when month-on-month growth returned, even if it was weak, with new housing prices increasing by only 0.2 percent in March and 0.4 percent in April. Second-hand housing prices grew by 0.1 percent in April. 

Sources said new home buyers accounted for the market’s recovery.

        According to statistics for 2008 provided by the Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, 13.35 million sq.m of housing and commercial floor space were sold during the year, down 38.6 percent from the previous year. Of these properties, 10.31 million sq.m, or 94,200 units, were commodity homes. This yielded a year-on-year decrease of 40.4 percent. But if figures for the first eleven months of 2008 are taken into consideration, the situation revealed is worse: sales of commodity housing declined by 52.4 percent from the same period in 2007. 

        Declining sales were reflected in increasing vacancy rates of commercial properties. By the end of December 2008, 14.38 million sq.m of commercial space was vacant, an increase of 26.6 percent over the previous year; about 5.23 million sq.m of commodity housing was vacant, an increase of 26.9 percent, and 64 percent of these properties had been vacant for more than a year. Gloomy sales rates fed an increase in the vacancy rates for commercial properties. By the end of December 2008, vacant commercial properties had increased by 26.6 percent over a year before to 14.38 million sq.m. About 5.23 million sq.m of vacant commodity housing was available to the market, an increase of 26.9 percent; 64 percent of them had been vacant for more than a year.

        Unreasonable prices and government polices used to suppress an over-heated property sector were blamed for the stagnant market. However, even as the government was working to deflate the bubble in the real estate market, a global financial crisis was brewing that would swamp the world of finance. The cooling policies became problematic, because the property market has been an important contributor to China’s economic growth in recent years.

        To prevent the national economy from tumbling with the real estate sector, the central government adjusted its policies to encourage property sales. On October 27, 2008, China’s central bank expanded the discount for interest rates of unpaid commercial housing loans from 15 percent to 30 percent. Effective on November 1, 2008, a contract tax on first-purchases of homes (with areas of less than 90 sq.m) was lowered to 1 percent; the stamp tax for individual homebuyers and sellers was suspended; and value added taxes for land was not assessed for individual home sellers. 

        Local governments also responded with various incentive policies. In Beijing, credit lines for public-housing-fund loans were increased from 600,000 yuan to 800,000 yuan (US$90,000 to 120,000) starting on November 6, and the one-time-a-year limit of access to deposits in the public-housing fund was reduced to once a month. (Most employees and companies in Beijing contribute equal shares to this fund; employees may withdraw their capital from this account.) 

        Beijing also reduced its interest rate for public-housing-fund loans for the fourth time in 2008 on November 27, by 0.54 percentage points. The cost of commercial loans was reduced the same day, and benchmark interest rates for deposits and loans fell by 1.08 percentage points, according to the People’s Bank of China.

        Incentive policies, along with more reasonable prices, were cited as major reasons for the initial recovery at the beginning of 2009. Encouraged by strengthening prices, sellers became bolder in their pricing, but the market easily sorts real from ephemeral conditions. Even property developers and individual sellers began squeezing the market for what it would bear per unit of sales; the market responded by stalling again. In May, the number of deals stopped ascending for the first time in four months with sales of both new and second-hand homes declining.

        Data on the Beijing Real Estate Transaction Web site suggests that 13,841 units of forward-delivery housing were sold in the capital in May, down from 15,500 units for April, a decline of 10.7 percent: sales of second-hand homes dropped by 8.27 percent from April, to 18,814 units. Many believe this short-lived rebound in Beijing’s real estate market is at an end. What lies ahead is the never-ending game of buyers and sellers plying a potentially volatile market.

Investment Warms Up

        Faced with such uncertainty, investors, it would seem, might be discouraged; yet, it seems some are not. Since a decline in investment usually lags behind the market’s performance, the volume of investment in the sector in the first four months dropped by 26.5 percent year-on-year. The figure continued with a slight decline in real estate investment in 2008, when all-year investment dropped by 4 percent to a record 191 billion yuan (US$29 billion). Real estate enterprises are still cautious in expanding investment and buying land.

        In May 2009, to boost investment, the central government lowered the proportion of minimum self-provided capital for real estate companies from 35 percent to 20 percent, which means they will have more liquidity to leverage.

        Some developers have already begun to react to the stronger sales of recent months. While sales in May dropped, investors’ confidence was on the rise again, which was reflected in their demand for new land. 

At the same time, land values also showed an apparent rise. The average land value in terms of per unit floor space for ten land properties sold in May was valued at 3,823 yuan (US$573) per sq.m, 6 percent more than in April and 34 percent more than in March.

        Of these the most eye-catching deal was the No. 10 land at Guangqumen just outside the East Second Ring Road. On May 21, the land was won by R&F Properties for 1.02 billion yuan (US$150 million), 2.42 times higher than the starting price. This means its land value in terms of per unit floor space increased to 15,000 yuan (US$2,250) per sq.m, even higher than the peak price in 2007.

        About half of the land was sold at more than the asking price in May. So-called “high-quality” land sold at twice the initial price or more.

        Analysts said this reflects the scarcity of land available in urban areas and increased competition, but it also reflects an understanding that when the economy recovers from the current crisis, prices for urban lands will be even higher.  

        Industry insiders note that better sales since March have helped developers improve their cash flows: controls on credit and IPOs have been eased. Under these circumstances, securing land for future development has become a focus of bolder developers.

        On the side of land sellers, pressured by a need to maintain stable economic growth, the government is also speeding up the opening of new landed properties. Since April, the land supply has grown relatively rapidly; that trend became apparent in May. According to the land supply plan for the second quarter, by the end of June, 110 pieces of land will be available on the market. Of these, 41 properties will be used to build residential buildings with a construction space of 6.26 million sq.m.

Property Tax: A Key Solution?

        In the Opinions on Deepening the Reform on Economic System in 2009 published on May 25, a short sentence caught the eyes of many people: “deepening the tax reform on real estate sector by researching on the levying of property tax.”

        The news was quickly reported by major media outlets, because the property tax is expected to have a profound effect on the real estate sector and the prices it generates. ?Some would welcome the new property tax, in lieu of paying land-use fees as is the current practice, because it would reduce costs of entry into the market; that is, people could buy a home for less, because land-use fees would not be part of the initial price of a home. The ongoing property tax would serve to encourage housing speculators to release their holdings to the market, thereby driving prices downward.

        However, experts, industry insiders and ordinary people have quickly cooled on this idea and question the feasibility of the tax in China.

        Concerns arise from several aspects. First, many homebuyers paid the 70 year land-use-right when they made their housing purchase; many feel it would be unfair to assess a property tax in such a case. It would also be difficult to fairly appraise the true market value of a home, especially since China has no mature home appraisal organizations or trained personnel. Fully identifying and properly assessing the values of all the properties owned by families, especially those of corrupt officials, might be difficult. And some question the viability of relying upon a property tax to reduce housing prices in the first place.

        Relying on a property tax is a long-term proposition that could yield stable rates and stable, increasing revenues for the government. Reliance on such a tax to achieve market adjustments is ill-advised, according to Dong Fan, director of the Real Estate Research Centre of Beijing Normal University. Fan said short-term and more flexible measures are more appropriate for market adjustments.

        Another industry insider said in an interview with China Youth Daily that housing prices are sensitive to many factors, such as market supply and demand, as well as the overall economy, and there is no successful case of using property taxes to check housing prices either in or outside China. “The United States relies heavily on the property tax, but the sub-prime mortgage crisis still happened.”

2009北京房地产开发市场总体形势低迷

编写/薛京晶

      “成交量上升—涨价—供应剧增—自住型需求渐减—成交量下降”——沿着这样的轨迹，中国各省市的房地产市场在进入2009年后均释放出不同信号。受到政策优惠、楼盘促销和前期刚性需求大量积累的多重刺激，2009年1—4月，中国商品房累计成交面积1.76亿平方米，同比增加17.5%，商品房销售额达到7996亿元。在成交回暖的带动下，一些销售情况较好的项目开始涨价，大多数项目的优惠力度也有所减小。

      在此形势下，北京的房价环比均呈现一定程度上涨，一些品牌项目的售价上涨幅度达到了30%—40%，市场回暖、房价止跌回稳的迹象明显。然而进入5月后，北京楼市的成交量随即出现萎缩。北京市房地产交易管理网的统计数据显示：2009年5月，包括期房与现房在内的北京市新建住宅共销售1.71万套，与4月1.85万套的总成交套数相比出现了下滑。此外，出现下滑的还有二手房的销量，5月1.97万套的二手房成交套数与4月2.15万套的成交量相比，减少了1800余套。

      房地产市场目前出现的上述现象，是否会影响到6月乃至未来北京楼市的成交量，未来的北京房地产市场走势又将如何等一系列问题，成为了当前社会各领域关注的热点。

房地产开发市场形势依然严峻

      2009年4月，位于北京西南石景山区的“远洋·沁山水”楼盘三期开盘，仅仅20天，5栋楼共计900套房源已经全部售罄。同样位于石景山区的“雍景四季”楼盘，面积为90平方米的两居小户型在4月25日开盘当天也全部售空。2009年春节过后，中国宏观经济的一些指标也开始呈现出不同于全球经济衰退的新气象：首先是股市上扬，上证指数已从2009年初的1800点攀升至如今的2500点。紧接着是房地产市场的成交量在2009年第1季度内回升。

      但是，北京市统计局最新发布的《2009年1—4月北京市房地产市场运行情况》却呈现出相反的情况：截至2009年4月，北京市共完成房地产开发投资额338.2亿元，同比下降26.5%；房地产开发企业施工项目为638个，新开工项目90个，同比分别减少51个和28个；商品房施工面积为7405.2万平方米，同比下降2.1%；商品房新开工面积为464万平方米，同比下降41.3%；住宅新开工项目59个，同比减少30个，新开工面积为269.9万平方米，同比下降51.6%。

      竣工面积也是由增转降。2009年初，由于部分项目集中竣工，商品房竣工面积增长较快，但增速逐月放缓。1—4月，商品房竣工面积为396.3万平方米，由第1季度的同比增长7.4%转为下降3.3%。其中，住宅竣工面积为270.4万平方米，增长7.9%，增幅比第1季度降低14个百分点。

      中国社会科学院研究员曹建海对此表示，此前出现的“楼市回暖”只是一种暂时的现象，其背后大多是房地产商的自我炒作，所谓房展会和订购会的热闹气氛，也有很多是故意营造出的气氛。目前的房地产开发市场总体形势依然低迷，企业对扩大投资和购置土地依然较为谨慎。

      持续关注房地产市场发展的中国社会科学院金融研究所研究员易宪容也表示，从市场最基本的诚信原则来看，房地产开发商所鼓吹的“楼市回暖”迹象无从谈起。要想真正判断楼市是否复苏，其中的一种方法就是查看个人住房按揭贷款。进入2009年，尽管政府采取大力度的个人住房按揭贷款信贷优惠政策，但是个人住房按揭贷款不仅没有增加，反而在2008年迅速下降的基础上进一步萎缩或减少，按照这种形势可以推断，2009年住房销售萎缩只会进一步加深而不会缓解。尽管此前有所增长，但仍然不足以造成真正的房地产市场回暖。

      与此相关的还有居高不下的退房率。统计数据显示：2009年1—5月，北京全市退房数量为2099套，退房率为4.7％。其中，位于朝阳区的“星河湾”楼盘成交的住宅数量为67套，退房套数为15套；位于西城区的“锦官苑”楼盘成交的住宅数量为44套，退房套数却达到86套。在一定程度上，这些高退房率的项目令人对所谓的“楼市回暖”生出一份疑虑。业内专家对此纷纷表示，存在一定比例的退房数实属正常，但如果超过5%就该“预警”了。但在政策利好和项目本身没有问题的背景下，应该不完全是购房者的正常退房现象，而相当的一部分可能是由于地产商的虚假成交。

购房是需求、判断和经济基础三者的综合考量

      在某企业工作的张先生目前的看房行程安排得更加紧密了。在他看来，当前是比较适合购房的时间段，交通便捷、小户型、每平方米的价位在1.1—1.3万元之间的楼盘成为他的首选。在连续看了20余个楼盘后，张先生最终于2009年3月定下了位于朝阳区四惠地区的“壹线国际”楼盘。“选择这里是考虑到东边是北京经济发展的重心，CBD商圈随之还会东扩，楼盘与国贸、长安街位于同一直线上，因此这里的房价可能会上涨，即便是对于未来的投资也是很合适的。”这是张先生自己分析的主要购房原因。

      然而，并不是所有购房者都会慎重考虑房价在未来的上涨可能性以及未来的投资发展。在某外企工作的李先生就认为，北京目前的外来人口众多，如果经济条件允许，许多人会买房，并且还要考虑到父母等相关亲属，这就属于一种“刚性需求”，与房地产商的营销手段以及未来的投资等关系不是很大。但尽管目前房价有所下降，对于大多数有“刚性需求”的工薪阶层来说，没有买房的主要原因并不是在等待更合适的机会，还是由于经济上的不宽裕。

      而由此引出的“刚性需求”这个近几年中国房地产市场中经常出现的高频词汇，它的基础支撑点是中国处于快速城市化进程中，大量劳动力从农村涌入城市，城市适婚年龄人口在不断增加，一些居民的住房也需要升级换代，由此带动的首次置业需求、改善居住条件需求、动拆迁需求以及子女教育等一直被认为是无法回避的必需品。根据北京市统计局的统计资料显示：2008年，北京全市职工的年平均工资为44715元，而2009年北京春季房展会上的成交均价大约为每平方米1.1万元。按照这个水平，一位普通北京市民要节衣缩食15年才能购买一套面积在60平方米左右的房子，这还没有算上动态的通货膨胀等因素。

      易宪容分析表示，目前社会中经常提到的“刚性需求”不完全是购房的主要原因，需求主要是由消费者的货币支付能力来决定的。换言之，如果已有的经济能力连首付都付不起，那么即使对房子有需求也不会转化为购买力。他认为，购房者的购买动机最终还是建立在需求、判断和经济基础三者之上的一个综合考量。

保证房地产市场稳定有利于经济平稳发展

      由于全球金融体系是建立在以美元为本位的基础之上，因此美国次贷危机向金融危机演变后迅速向全球扩散。英国、日本、欧盟等世界主要经济体均受其影响，出现了全球性的金融危机。中国各大、中城市房价环比均出现下跌，商品住房成交量大幅下滑，市场观望气氛浓厚。中国政府基于对当前经济形势的正确判断，出台了一系列扩大内需促进经济平衡较快增长的政策措施。2008年9月，中国央行6年来首次调低利率。10月，促进房地产业健康发展的措施出台。而11月召开的国务院常务会议又出台了投资4万亿元的刺激经济计划和促进经济增长的10项措施。12月，国务院办公厅印发了《关于促进房地产市场健康发展的若干意见》。

      2007年的《北京经济蓝皮书》就曾经预测：北京在接下来的2—3个月内，房价有可能继续小幅下跌，但随着2008年奥运会的临近，北京的房价仍然会转头继续向上攀升。奥运会结束以后，北京全市的房价可能会出现下降趋势，但如果影响北京近年来房价上涨的因素不发生根本性的改变，房价下降的空间不会很大。“从过去的2008年北京房地产市场的走势来看，北京商品房销售均价完全符合最初的预测。”北京社会科学院副院长梅松强调。北京商品房销售均价在2008年初有所回落，在奥运会举办前的达到峰值，随后的8、9月开始回落。但是尽管目前国际、国内市场环境发生改变，但支撑北京房价上涨的基本因素并没有发生根本性的改变，加上北京经济适用房和限价商品房的大规模开发建设，因此房价下降的空间不会很大。

      “房地产市场是否真正回暖是一个小问题。作为支柱产业，房地产业要做到真正改善居民的住房条件才最基本的。”这是2009年4月易宪容在“搜狐经济学人月度论坛”上发表的看法。中国著名经济学家任玉岭对此也表示，在房地产业成为一个主导产业后，其公益性和保障性逐渐减退，造成了过分的市场化。此前，经业内专家考察后得出的结论认为，合理的房价和家庭收入比（即房价收入比，指住房价格与城市居民家庭年收入之比）为4，但如今在北京、上海等城市，这个数值已经扩大到了14—15，一方面是由于普通居民越来越难以接受不断增长的房价，另一方面是保障性住房建设始终难以跟上要求。

      北京师范大学房地产研究中心副主任王宏新分析认为：“此前，如果对70%—80%的群体都使用经济适用房的政策，也许房地产市场中产生的矛盾就不会像如今这样尖锐。但如今挤在房地产这片狭窄市场里的居民们无意间又用自己的需求进一步推高了房价。”因此业内专家建议，北京的房地产开发商应该理智地面对市场变化，促使房价理性回归和房地产市场的健康发展，有利于北京经济的平稳发展。

物业税在一定程度上引导房地产市场发展

      2009年5月，中国国务院发布了《关于2009年深化经济体制改革工作的意见》，特别提到2009年将研究开征物业税，这将在社会上讨论了多年的物业税又重新置于公众的视线内，同时也对房地产市场带来了不小影响。

      中国著名经济学家李开发对此表示，从事实上来说，物业税与房价的涨跌没有直接关系。物业税开征以后，对房价的调节作用不是因为其出台，而是它的税率、征收方法、征收模式以及减免或优惠政策等部分会涉及到房价，可能在一定程度上会引导房地产市场的发展。

      物业税从一次征收土地出让金等费用改为在持有领域分批征收，开发商可以更多的购得土地，这样有利于规模较大的开发商进一步垄断房价。同时，由于开发商持有的土地成本比较低，因此即便是房产暂时销售不出去，也不需要进行减价促销。

      “正式物业税出台后最重要的还是税率，不同税率和不同政策调整幅度的大小会导致房价的上涨和下跌，而不仅仅是只出台一个物业税就可以起到作用。而且，物业税的核心内容就是税率是多少、是单一征收税率还是累进征收税率、是对自住房还是保障性住房的优惠政策，这三方面的力度大小和征收模式决定了是否对市场进行调控以及调控的作用有多大。”李开发分析说。

      李开发认为，征收物业税会带来两个直接结果：一方面，税种的丰富使政府的收入不断增加，如果政府费用保证一定的比例，在物业税增加以后，就可以把物业税的税收填补到公用的相关领域，在完善交通、住宅管理体系、住房、周边环境等方面都可以有所作为。另一方面，由于目前一些行业、企业的税收压力过大，不利于自身的发展，物业税征收后可以减免这些行业的税收，甚至可以取消税收，让其能够有更好的条件发展。比如这次通过税收以后，国家在原有的税源上，一年可以征税5—6万亿元，如果增加10%，就是5—6千亿元，这样可以减少出口创汇企业的税率，为了扶持创新型企业的发展，以前免税3年，现在可以免税5年，有利于社会各行业更均衡的发展，对拉动内需是有效的。

未来房地产领域呈现6大走势

      2009年4月，中国社会科学院发布了《2009年房地产蓝皮书》（以下简称《蓝皮书》），预计2009年北京房地产市场将呈现以下态势：

      首先，政策性住房用地供应继续增加，商品房用地供应量略有下降。由于北京始终坚持的是优化住宅用地供应结构，增加廉租住房、经济适用住房和限价商品住房的土地供应的思路，再加上2008年10月以来建材等原材料价格下降以及市场销售流程的进一步理顺，预计2009年保障房用地的成交量将比2008年略有上升。根据北京市建设委员会公布的计划，2009年北京将建设850万平方米的保障性用房，包括650万平方米的限价房、160万平方米的经济适用房、20万平方米的廉租房和20万平方米的政策性租赁房。

      其次，土地价格回落。一方面是因为目前市场的低迷，未来楼市走势并不明朗，使得开发企业的投资将更加谨慎。另一方面，2009年推出的土地绝大部分是保障性住房用地，不仅会拉低北京全市土地的成交价格，也会对周边商品房用地的土地价格产生影响。

      第三，房地产开发规模继续下降。《蓝皮书》中指出：2009年初，北京出台了一系列促进房地产投资和开发的措施，如加快推进在建和遗留项目的拆迁工作，加大实物安置力度；加强对企业开发各环节所遇困难的帮助，加速审批手续，促进项目开工；支持房地产开发企业合理的融资需求，拓宽企业直接融资渠道等。但是，受到宏观经济形势和房地产市场形势不景气影响，预计2009年全年北京的房地产投资、新开工、施工、竣工面积等都将继续呈现下降。就具体月度而言，受各项经济刺激政策和市场的影响，下降幅度可能会在2009年下半年有所收窄。

      第四，市场新增供应下降，成交量放大。北京的房地产市场在2007年末至2008年初进入了调整期，各大开发企业纷纷放慢了购地、开发、开盘的速度，房地产投资规模、开发规模逐渐下降。受此影响，2009年市场新增供应量将有所下降。随着北京各项促进住房消费措施的出台和落实，以及各开发企业加大打折促销力度，预计北京2009年的房地产市场成交量会有所放大。在供应下降、成交放大两方面的作用下，年度批售比会降至1以下，已批未售的面积将有较大幅度减少，并且这种趋势已经在2009年1—2月有了较为明显的体现。

      第五，商品住宅全年均价下降，但部分项目价格出现上涨。由于受到销售不景气、信心恢复困难、大规模保障性住房价格偏低的影响，2009年北京整体房价仍将有下降空间，但不同区位和不同档次的房价将呈现差异化变动。特别是低价位市场，由于2009年保障性住房开竣工面积、配售套数都将增长，覆盖范围随之进一步扩大，预计对于低端价位商品住宅的冲击将进一步加大，低端产品价格将进一步下行。在全年均价下降的环境下，由于商品房市场成交量放大，新增供应减少，如果宏观经济环境转暖，不排除住宅成交均价在2009年下半年出现月度环比上涨的走势。就具体项目而言，由于部分开盘价格较低或者一次性降价到位，目前已呈现供不应求的状态，在2009年下半年有可能出现价格的小幅反弹。

      第六，二手房市场迅速发展。在各种交易税费下调或减免的刺激下，2009年北京的二手房交易将迎来发展的好时机。年初的二手房日均成交量放大，最高时达到日均800套，1—2月的月度成交量均超过了一手房，二手房市场日趋成熟，成为商品房市场的重要组成部分。

      近期，北京市统计局新闻发言人于秀琴在新闻发布会上表示，北京目前房地产价格的调整还没有结束，许多房地产商对房地产业未来的走势仍处于观望状态，房地产市场仍处于调整期。但是，中央和地方政府在未来会陆续出台很多政策和措施，以促进交易量的增长和回升，最终保证北京房地产市场的平稳发展。

8项稳定房地产市场的政策