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Yao Jingyuan:‘L-Shaped’ Development Unlikely with Current Economic Conditions

China’s consumer price index (CPI) in January 2009 rose by 1 percent year-on-year, the lowest increase since August 2006, suggesting to some that the Chinese economy has entered a deflationary period.

There are three major points of view about this possibility in 2009 that are often referred to as one of three “shapes”: V, U and L. “V” means the economy will hit bottom and rebound shortly thereafter; “U” says it will bottom out and remain there for a while before it rises again; and “L” suggests the economy will bottom out and remain there for a long time with no clear indication when it might recover.

When asked about the prospects for Chinese economy in 2009, Yao Jingyuan, chief economist at the National Bureau of Statistics, said the Chinese economy is still in a rapid development mode and its fundamentals remain unchanged. Therefore, it’s unlikely that China will enter an L-shaped condition.

With regard to the 1 percent CPI growth, Yao said it is not surprising, because keeping prices from rising too high too fast has been the key task for macroeconomic controls over the past two years; the January figure indicates that macro controls have been effective.

With the decline in CPI growth, the producer price index (PPI) in January declined by 3.3 percent year-on-year.

“Judging from CPI and PPI trends, I think the figures will remain at a low level in the first quarter,” said Yao. “However, with the effect of all the domestic-demand-incentive measures emerging, the general situation in the second and third quarters, especially in the second half of the year, will change. Therefore, I think we do have a risk of deflation. However, with the implementation of all of our stimulus plans, the CPI this year (2009) will rise after declining; still, prices will remain stable.”

“Because of the global financial crisis, our economy is facing downward pressures. Excessive production capacity in some sectors is prominent; many enterprises are faced with difficulties, and creating enough jobs will be a challenge,” Yao said in an interview with People’s Daily.

Since the fourth quarter of 2008, the Chinese Government has taken action to expand domestic demand, using both investment and consumption.

“To expand consumption, (the government) should do things to raise the incomes of the people and to improve their expectations of future spending,” said Yao. The ten measures issued by the State Council in November 2008 are clearly focused on these two aspects: raising the incomes of low- and medium-income people, like raising pensions for retirees and increasing subsidies to farmers; and, easing people’s worries about the future by improving the social security system.

“In this way, people will have money to spend and will dare to spend it,” he said. "The subsequent increase in demand will help ward off a deflation."

姚景源：中国经济基本面仍处在平稳发展时期

文/薛京晶


中国国家统计局在2009年2月发布的统计数据显示，2009年１月，中国居民消费价格总水平（CPI）同比上涨1％，创下了2006年8月以来的新低。与此同时，目前社会中还出现了对2009年的经济走势的“V”形（触底迅速反弹）、“U”形（在底部持续一段时间，然后上扬）、“L”形（在底部一直走下去，不知道什么时候才会抬头）三种看法。

中国国家统计局总经济师姚景源对此表示，由于世界金融危机对中国经济的影响，经济下行的压力在加大，部分行业的产能过剩问题比较突出，一些企业生产经营遇到困难，就业也遇到了困难，这些都带来了前所未有的挑战。但是中国经济的基本面没有发生变化，仍然处在一个平稳发展的历史时期，是不可能出现“L”形这样的局面。

2009年１月，中国CPI同比上涨创下了2006年8月以来的新低，姚景源表示，2009年１月CPI同比上涨1％是符合绝大多数人预期的，因为这两年始终是把抑制物价过高、过快上涨作为宏观调控的重要目标。CPI上涨1%，首先表明了中国的宏观调控取得了重大成效。从构成CPI的八类价格来看，从2007年到2008年始终是处于“五涨三落”的基本态势。这八大类商品和服务在CPI当中所占的权重不一样，其中，食品占的权重大概是1/3，从2007年、2008年的价格上涨到现在的价格回落，其原因主要还是食品价格发生变化。

虽然2009年1月的CPI是上涨的，但是工业品出厂价格指数（PPI）下降了3.3%。PPI之所以出现这样的下降幅度，姚景源认为首先是由于世界金融危机导致国际上一些大宗产品比如原油的价格暴跌，并且通过产业链条逐渐往中国的中下游企业传导。第二是2008年1—８月，PPI涨幅形成较高基数，致使2008年工业品价格变动对2009年的滞后影响为负。从CPI和PPI的走势看，姚景源认为2009年第1季度肯定还会是一个偏低的状况，但是随着中国扩大内需的各项政策措施效果的逐步显现，2009年第2季度、第3季度特别到了下半年，总体局面会有所改变。因此，尽管会面临通货紧缩的风险，但随着扩大内需措施的实施，2009年CPI的走势将呈现前低后高的状况，整个价格还会保持一个平稳的基本态势。

当谈到2009年１月CPI数据对于政府出台相关政策会有怎样的影响，应采取哪些措施来抑制通货紧缩的发生的问题时，姚景源表示，按照宏观经济学的基本原理，抑制通货紧缩就要扩大需求，要把扩内需和调结构紧紧结合起来。从2008年第4季度开始，国家几乎每周都在围绕着保增长、扩内需、调结构出台政策。内需分为两个部分，一部分是投资，一部分是消费，扩大内需就是要扩大投资、扩大消费。要扩大消费就要想办法增加人民的收入，改善对未来支出的预期。前一段时间，中国政府出台了扩大需求的十大措施，这十大措施比较明确地投向两个方面：一是提高中低收入群体的收入，比如提高低保、社保标准，提高离退休金，加大对农民各种补贴的力度等。二是投向社会保障，投向民生，通过完善社会保障，比如完善医改等，减少大家的后顾之忧，通过扩大需求来抑制通货紧缩的发生。