Related stories

Implementation Measures of the "Rules of the People's Republic of China on Customs Protection of Intellectual Property Rights" Decision on Amendments to the Law of Judges of the People's Republic of China Highlights of the Ninth China Beijing International High-tech Expo China Issues Rules to Widen Financing Channels for Stock Firms China Business Summit Held in Beijing

China's Renminbi: INTERNATIONAL PILLAR OF STRENGTH

The Chinese Government has taken some of the most drastic economic measures in the nation’s history over the past month to answer international calls for financial and economic unity.

These include a 4 trillion yuan domestic stimulus package, the biggest interest rate cuts in 11 years, and steps to allow China’s foreign exchange reserves to reach as much as US$2 trillion by the end of 2008. China, which is replacing Germany as the world’s third greatest economy, proved to be a major player in world economic conferences and forums including the Summit on Financial Markets and the World Economy (G-20) held in Washington in November.

Still, these  may be just a beginning in China’s handling of a worldwide economic downturn that is stunning in its complexity and reach. The country is expected to take more measures in response to the global financial tsunami while addressing a host of domestic concerns.

According to Yao Jingyuan, chief economist of the National Bureau of Statistics, the Chinese currency renminbi has appreciated by more than 20 percent against the US dollar since China de-pegged it from the dollar in July 2005. If the renminbi were to appreciate 5 percent more, it would be a crushing blow to 62 percent of the 5,920 Chinese companies covered by a survey conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics, State Council’s Development Research Center and other major agencies. Exporters, in particular, would bear the brunt of the blow.

The 4 trillion yuan (US$586 billion) stimulus package is but one of the major steps to control the adverse effects of the export slump and address other domestic ills such as the slowing manufacturing and consumer demand and the cooling real-estate markets. The recent rate cuts were higher than most expectations, with the China’s central bank deciding to slash lending and deposit interest rates by a 1.08 percent. The benchmark one-year renminbi lending rate was cut to 5.58 percent from 6.66 percent, and the one-year renminbi deposit rate was cut to 2.52 percent from 3.60 percent.

In recent weeks, all major Asian currencies have declined in value against the US dollar, including the renminbi. Meanwhile, China’s central government is working to ensure that the combined effects of a depreciating renminbi and central bank rate cuts will not cause investors to flee.

Still, Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People’s Bank of China, the country’s central bank, while addressing the G20 meeting of major industrial and emerging economies in Sao Paulo, Brazil, said that weakening the renminbi could be an option since exports slowed to a four-month low in October. He is backed by some of Beijing’s leading economic thinkers. Ironically, perhaps, despite a decline in Chinese exports, China’s overall trade surplus increased to a record US$35 billion in November, from $29.4 billion in the previous month, largely due to a decrease in import growth, according to the Customs Bureau Web site.

China has apparently joined the rest of the world in entering a spiral of economic decline, with slowing industrial activity dragging China back to single digit growth, the slowest in five years. Previous pressures brought to renminbi by international trade partners, who have benefited from the steady renminbi appreciation over the past two years, may wane with the worsening of the global economic situation.

With China’s export growth slowing to 19.2 percent in October from 21.5 percent in September, policy-makers have responded by weakening the renminbi against the US dollar. This comes even as the renminbi is cited as Asia’s best-performing currency after a 6.6 percent advance in the first half of 2008.

The global currency market has once again been thrown into the spotlight. Since the United States Federal Reserve announced US$30 billion in currency swap “lines” with the central banks of four stable emerging markets––the Republic of Korea (ROK), Singapore, Brazil and Mexico––in October, larger economies in Asia are now taking similar actions in anticipation of additional economic instability. China, the ROC and Japan have announced plans to expand the size of their current currency swap arrangements. Currency swap lines are designed to increase liquidity, and to help reduce interest rates, without adding to inflationary pressures.

Current Bilateral Swap Arrangements between the three major Asian economies are guided by the Chiang Mai Initiative (CMI). Under current CMI regulations, Tokyo can provide up to US$10 billion and up to US$3 billion worth of Japanese yen to Seoul, while Beijing can offer up to US$4 billion worth of Chinese renminbi to the ROC.

Though none of these lines have been tapped so far, actions taken by those governments to review and possibly increase credit capacity indicate they are preparing for hard times ahead.

US Dollar, Debt, Inflation and Newest Views on China

The global economic downturn was touched off by a financial crisis that began in the United States a year ago, which has forced the world’s largest economy into the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930s. The United States now has a 6.5 percent unemployment rate, the highest in 14 years, according to the United States Labor Department. Some 240,000 more jobs were cut in October in the United States while more is being expected, chilling consumer demand around the world.For one thing: US auto sales, a major indicator of consumer demand, are the lowest since 1982.

Injections of liquidity into the United States economy can be accomplished by continuing to sell governmental bonds or by printing the bucks, but both measures, if taken, would increase the domestic inflation and weaken the US dollar.

Since the beginning of the financial crisis, the United States Treasury and Federal Reserve (the Fed) have injected record amounts of capital into struggling banks and financial institutions. Since the announcement of the US$700 billion stimulus package, actions have been taken to allow greater targeted increases in governmental spending to stimulate the US economy.

The Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP) allowed the Fed to extend more than US$600 billion in special credits to commercial and investment banks and insurance companies and credit swap lines with central banks from other nations. Such funds may be considered as capital that the banks are otherwise unable to obtain, with the US Government and the US taxpayer serving as the guarantor. As a result, the total outstanding debt of the US Treasury has grown to more than US$10 trillion.

Continued increases of governmental debt can only result in higher inflation or a devaluation of the US dollar. China, which holds close to US$2 trillion in US governmental bonds, has indicated that it will not sell its dollar-denominated reserves. Instead, it will slightly increase its holdings in the US dollar despite a faltering US economy, according to a Xinhua News Agency report.

Cheng Siwei, a highly regarded economist and a former vice-chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress, the Chinese parliament, had the following to say during a recent financial forum in Guangdong: “China would suffer losses if it sold off the US dollar; thus, our strategy is not to sell but to slightly increase our dollar reserves.”

US President-elect Barack Obama and secretary-of-state nominee Senator Hillary R. Clinton have already spoken on their approaches toward the Sino-US economic future. In China, many believe that Sino-US trade could be the biggest hurdle to relations between the two nations, basing themselves on the understanding that the Democrats have tended to favour stricter constraints on trade.

In an interview with the Newsweek magazine, Professor Sun Zhe, vice-director of the American Research Institute of Shanghai’s Fudan University, said that during his presidential election campaign, Obama spoke of problems in trade between his country and China, the rate of exchange between the US dollar and renminbi, the Sino-US relations and China’s rise. He also criticized environmental problems in China. These, he said, would complicate trade relations.

Sun said, “Trade frictions are unavoidable between countries, and they should not be politicized. I think a strong US economy is good for China. It is also in the China’s interest since the United States is a major market for Chinese exports.” He also noted that Senator Clinton has said China will be the most important bilateral relationship for the US this century.

China replaced Japan as the United States’ second largest trade partner in 2007, but the trade surplus was close to US$256.3 billion in China’s favor. Sun said the quarrel will continue under the Barak Administration on China’s surplus in trade with the United States.

G20 and APEC: Renminbi’s New Global Role

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its purchasing power parity calculations, China accounted for 27 percent of global economic growth in 2007, greater than any other country. Virtually no one voiced disagreement with President Hu Jintao’s assertion at the G-20 summit that the best way for China to help the global economy was to sustain its own growth.

“Steady and relatively fast growth in China is, in itself, an important contribution to international financial stability and world economic growth,” Xinhua quoted Hu as saying. "Meanwhile, we should all enhance macroeconomic policy coordination, expand economic and financial information-sharing, and deepen cooperation in international financial regulation to create necessary conditions for stability in both domestic and international markets."

The G20, with 70 percent of the global population, furnishes 85 percent of global GDP, and 75 percent of international trade.  Nickolas Sarkozy of France, the current European Union rotating president, said, “The US dollar should no longer be seen as the only global currency as it has been since World War II.” Prime Minister Gordon Brown of Britain also pushed for an overhaul of the world’s financial architecture in support of  European measures to stabilize banks and restore market confidence. Brown called for an overhaul of the Bretton Woods system, which has led to the creation of global financial institutions such as the IMF and World Bank since it came into being 60 years ago.

During the G-20 summit, outgoing US President George W. Bush acknowledged that the burden of a final decision from the US side would fall to his successor, but still he declared the summit a success. “It makes sense to come out of here with a firm action plan, which we have.”

Obama did not attend the summit. In a leaders’ declaration, the G-20 said: “We must lay the foundation for reform to help ensure that a global crisis such as this one does not happen again.” The declaration urged governments to take necessary action to achieve “rapid effects.” Leaders of the G-20 promised to review progress made by the countries’ financial authorities during a summit scheduled for April 30, 101 days after Obama takes office.

Renminbi’s Influence Grows

A recent decision by the Philippines central bank to include renminbi in its foreign currency reserves is seen as a sign that the international influence of the renminbi is growing.

During an interview with Caijing Magazine, Li Daokui, director of Tsinghua University’s China World Economy Research Center, commented on factors that have lead to increasing signs of confidence in renminbi by the global community. These include the renminbi’s role in stabilizing China’s domestic economy, usage in growing areas of trade and the currency’s stable appreciation since it was de-pegged from the US dollar only in July 2005.

Li said suggestions of renminbi replacing the dollar as a global financial monometre is “a beautiful vision,” but added that China’s financial markets are still immature, and that China’s exchange market rates are yet to be set on the open market.

According to Professor He Maochun, director of Tsinghua University’s Centre of Economy and Diplomacy, the relationship between the renminbi and the dollar is not just a matter of supply and demand. “China is not in a rush to make renminbi a global currency powerful enough to challenge the US dollar’s dominance,” he said. “But here is a good opportunity for more currencies to get involved in the global trade system, especially the euro and renminbi.”

Earlier in 2008, China concentrated on work to prevent a possible overheating of its economy. The policy has changed. Right now, the Chinese Government is exerting its utmost to stimulate economic growth. Experts interviewed for this article agreed that China’s foreign exchange reserves would shrink if the US dollar continues to weaken. To keep the US dollar relatively strong would also be in the interest of the United States. That may help reduce the prices of imports and bring down inflation. 

China’s Currency Dependent Industries Still Suffering

Weakening global demand is now adversely affecting China’s export-oriented industries, particularly those southern China provinces where such industries are concentrated. According to the Dongguan Association of Foreign-Invested Enterprises, about 9,000 factories may cease operations in southeastern Guangdong Province by early spring, resulting in more than 2.7 million jobs being lost. Migrant workers from other provinces and their remittances to families back home will be heavily affected.

These results can be directly attributed to decreasing export revenues, such as the 17.5 percent decline in the number of contracts signed during the 104th China Import and Export Fair in Guangzhou, totalling US$31.55 billion. About 175,000 foreign buyers visited the fair, compared with around 207,000 in the previous year.

China’s industrial growth was among the first to show signs of contraction, with production increasing by 8.2 percent in October 2008, down from 17.8 percent in March. Steel production dropped 17 percent from the same month in 2007, while power generation fell for the first time in a decade. As a result, the nation’s industrial growth dipped to a seven-year low.

The “follow-up effects” have been keenly felt by major container shippers, bulk operators and port authorities. Container traffic targets for 2008 have been cut by 5 percent in Shanghai, the world’s second busiest port, according to China Daily. Chen Xiyuan, president of the Shanghai International Port Group, attributed the slowdown to the global economic recession and sluggish domestic demand.

China’s shipyards reported a 34 percent decline in the number of new ship orders during the first nine months of 2008, compared with a global average of 27 percent. Container exports to the United States, which account for 20 percent of Shanghai’s total export volume, dropped by 7.8 percent during the first nine months of 2008.

Evidence to the nation’s slowing real-estate markets can be seen in home sales. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the area of housing sold, measured by floor space, fell by 16.5 percent in October to 450 million square metres year-on-year. The volume of transactions fell by 17.4 percent to 1.76 trillion yuan.

Manufacturers and the working class are not the only victims of the global slowdown. Recent figures reported by Reuters suggest that Chinese investors who have invested overseas, taking advantage of the Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor (QDII) scheme launched in 2006, have taken heavy losses.

More than US$40 billion of China’s estimated US$2 trillion of household savings have been channelled into international financial markets. Since this year’s plunge in global equity markets, about half the QDII contracts sold by foreign banks have lost more than 50 percent in value, 80 percent in some cases.

Across-the-board production and spending cuts have eased consumer price inflation to an 18-month low, allowing more space for further interest rate cuts to boost economic activity. The consumer price index (CPI) in China rose to 4 percent year on year, declining for the six month in a row in October. The primary gauge for factory-gate inflation, the producer price index (PPI) fell to an eight-month low, to 6.6 percent in the same month.

Despite slowing international consumer demand, China recorded 19.2 percent growth in exports in October, resulting in an overall trade surplus of US$35.24 billion, compared with US$29.36 billion in September. Adding to the trade surplus was a decline in import growth, resulting from cooling domestic demand.

Depreciation of the Renminbi?

Excess renminbi fluctuations have the potential to deter investor confidence. The slowing global economy, the interest-rate cuts and the weakening of renminbi against major trade currencies have lead to a decrease in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in China. FDI figures stood at US$6.72 billion in November , down 2.02 percent from the previous month.

President Hu has reiterated country’s priority to maintain “stable and relatively fast economic growth despite an increasingly complicated external environment.” The Chinese Government has announced that the nation will implement an “active” fiscal policy and a “moderately easy” monetary policy to foster growth, according to a Xinhua report.

In response to the rapid decline of exports by China’s economic powerhouses such as Shanghai and Guangdong,  the central government is providing a range of new support measures. Shanghai’s industrial output has dropped to 3.8 percent from 15.3 percent  year-on-year, and Guangdong slowed to 9.9 percent, the slowest since January 2001. Such numbers have led the Ministry of Finance to announce new export tax rebates on 3,770 items, the third round of export tax rebates announced this year. The items account for 27.9 percent of the country’s exports.

Direct governmental intervention began with the announcement of its 4 trillion yuan economic stimulus package. The package, equivalent to about 15 percent of the current annual gross domestic product (GDP), is a “right step at the right time,” Mansoor Dailami, a senior economist at the World Bank, has told Xinhua.

China’s willingness to help stimulate  the world economy at this very critical moment, he said, “is something that should be noted,”

Additional reports since the 4 trillion yuan (by 2010) stimulus package announcement indicate that additional governmental spending is possible. Mu Hong, vice-director of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said, “The estimated 4 trillion yuan would only be part of the country’s total investment,” during a press conference organized by the State Council Information Office.

Mu said the central government will contribute 1.18 trillion yuan, but combined investments of businesses and local governments are expected to be higher.

According to TIME Magazine, one of the top domestic investment decisions for the new United States administration, in addition to stabilizing its capital markets and business environment, will involve projects for infrastructural rebuilding. More than US$4 billion is to be needed to build, improve or replace more than 150,000 structurally deficient bridges, 3,500 unsafe dams and numerous sewage systems. Likewise, in China, along with an estimated US$3.66 billion in Chinese governmental spending on its transportation infrastructure and US$4.99 billion in rural infrastructure in the fourth quarter alone, support for China’s weakening industrial sector may also be needed.

The Chinese Government is expected to use this opportunity to focus investments on public services, with a US$1.9 billion budget set for Public Health and Education, US$1.46 billion for affordable housing and US$1.76 billion on emissions reduction and the environment, all to be spent in the fourth quarter.

The report also suggests that for every 1 yuan increase in rural education spending there is an equivalent to 8.43 yuan in farm and livestock production, compared with a 6.75 yuan boost from infrastructure.

Small and medium business (SMEs) account for more than 60 percent of domestic GDP and 75 percent of urban jobs in China, and the government has already taken steps such as eliminating bank’s lending quotas and doubling the size of an assistance fund to 5.1 billion yuan (US$750 million) to steer more funding their way.

Avenues for securing additional sources for assistance for SMEs were outlined for local governments by Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, who heads the Chinese Government. Wen demanded that local governments readjust and improve their policies, such as by providing easier access to credit, preferential tax policies and loans to ensure healthy and rapid growth.

Yi Gang, vice-governor of the People’s Bank of China, recently pointed to a record increase in loans to SMEs, with total loans made in the first 10 months reaching 3.66 trillion yuan.

Yi, speaking in Beijing, spoke on the importance of financial reforms in China’s banking system: “Although there have been doubts in the market as to whether China’s financial reforms should continue after the crisis led to massive governmental bailouts and nationalization of financial institutions, China’s bank reforms can’t backtrack.”

Since the bad-loans crisis earlier this decade, when the Chinese Government spent US$650 billion rescuing local banks, reform has already taken place, leading to local banks selling shares, accepting foreign strategic investors, and enhanced risk management .

“Reforms based on market principles must continue to help shield banks from future risks during economic cycles,” Yi said.

人民币汇率浮动，中国政府面临考验

编写/薛京晶 

随着连日来人民币汇率连续出现跌停现象，针对人民币贬值的讨论声亦此起彼伏。不少北京市民也纷纷考虑自己的应对措施——热衷于外汇投资的李女士认为，国内物价近年来持续上涨令人民币出现对内贬值，但贬值趋势当前仍不明朗，还可以观望一段时间，一旦下跌趋势明朗，就考虑将自己手中持有的人民币兑换成外币。

自2005年7月开始对美元升值以来，一路轻扬的人民币如今开始在金融危机的阴影下踟蹰。十年前的亚洲金融危机中，在邻国货币汇率大幅贬值的情况下，中国坚持人民币不贬值，支持了邻国的出口，从而树立了负责任的大国形象，赢得了广泛的国际赞誉。十年后的今天，一场更大的危机面前，中国面临的情况更加错综复杂，人民币汇率问题也成为全国乃至世界关注的重点。

人民币汇率短期走低

在经历了2个月的窄幅盘整之后，从2008年12月1日开始，人民币兑美元现汇连续触及0.5％的波动区间下限，持续“跌停”，创出自2005年人民币汇率改革以来的新纪录。

中国央行相关负责人对此表示，人民币汇价的跌幅没有超出范围，央行会在保持人民币汇率基本稳定的基础上继续进行汇率改革。

中国社会科学院财贸所所长裴长洪认为，自人民币汇率改革以来，人民币兑美元汇率已升值两成，做些回调是完全正常的，也是必要的。通常，决定汇率的因素很多，广义上主要由4个因素决定，一是购买力平价；二是各国的通货膨胀；三是国际贸易平衡；四是金融投机。每个国家的政府还有中央银行、商业银行和投资银行，都会定期发布各种经济数据，这些数据都可能影响汇率。面对近期出现的情况，裴长洪认为，一方面要看外汇市场的情况，另一方面要看国际汇率的变化情况。总而言之，要形成一个比较合理的汇率，同时要考虑支持外贸企业走出去。

在2008年12月4日—5日举行的“第五次中美战略经济对话”中，中国商务部部长陈德铭就近段时间人民币汇率持续下跌的情况表示：“中国目前实行的是以市场供求为基础的有管理的汇率制度，人民币汇率有一些小幅度的波动是完全正常的，在过去3年多的时间中，人民币已对美元升值20%多，这是市场力量作用的结果。”

谈到人民币汇率对出口的影响，陈德铭表示：“目前的出口困难是市场萎缩造成的，但国家并不会依靠人民币贬值来推动出口。人民币汇率改革从2005年7月开始以来，中国的原则是主动性、渐进性和可控性，这个原则至今没有改变。汇率取决于贸易的顺差或逆差，但更主要的是取决于国际收支的平衡。”他还表示，自美国2008年9月中旬发生金融危机以来，人民币一直处于一个稳定状态，如果整个国际经济环境不出现大的变动，各国都认真继续共同协作对付当前危机，人民币还能继续保持稳定。

人民币汇率波动带来“涟漪效应”

汇率制度是指世界各国普遍采用的确定本国货币与其它货币汇率的体系。汇率制度在汇率的确定、汇率的变动等方面都有具体规定，因此对各国汇率的决定有重大影响。在国际金融历史上，一共出现了3种汇率制度，即金本位体系下的固定汇率制度、布雷顿森林体系下的固定汇率制度和浮动汇率制度。

1994年以前，中国先后经历了固定汇率制度和双轨汇率制度。自2005年7月21日起，中国开始实行以市场供求为基础、参考“一揽子”货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度，人民币与多种货币保持汇率，以避免单一与美元挂钩带来的汇率风险。

目前出现的人民币大幅贬值引起了社会各方的广泛关注，应对措施也是层出不穷。来自中国各大银行的消息显示，一些公司客户已经着手配置美元资产，以预防可能发生的人民币汇率风险。同时，在各大银行的外汇交易市场上，已经有银行在大量购进美元。美国各大媒体的报道和评论对此称，中国将利用人民币汇率下降大幅增加出口，而这将使美国的贸易赤字加强。

面对人民币汇率对未来经济的影响，各方面观点很多。有的认为人民币贬值对出口企业帮助很大，因为目前出口下降的主要原因是受金融危机影响后外需的减少。从经济本身角度来说，中国经济的调整速度明显快于外围市场，因此贬值不会继续，预期资金也不会出现大规模出逃。但也有观点强调，从目前到2009年末是人民币贬值的好时期，并不会引起资本外逃，人民币需要主动而快速的贬值，同时进一步加强外汇管理，因为在全球经济下滑的形势下，中国经济增速虽然有所放缓，但仍保持着一定的的增幅，贸易顺差也会保持一定规模，所以不会出现大规模贬值趋势，只会在保持相对稳定的情况下，出现阶段性贬值。

中国改革发展基金会副秘书长汤敏认为，人民币目前产生的一系列波动不一定会恢复到此前的态势。波动的意思就是根据人民币与其它各种货币之间的情况在上下浮动。如果其它货币在未来要大幅贬值，人民币也可能会跟着贬一些。如果其它货币过一段时间开始升值了，不论美元是否正在贬值，人民币也可能会跟着其它货币会升值，这是所谓“波动”的含义，而不是说人民币汇率一定要恢复到某一个数值上。目前，社会很多领域对“汇率”是相当敏感的，不论是做货币交易还是企业做出的决定都会考虑到这个因素，这就要看各个企业对自身以及对未来汇率的判断了。

上海第一财经频道经济评论家、经济学博士马红漫认为，对于人民币该不该贬值，从理论上讲存在着这样一个道理，本币贬值的几个汇率只是一个相对的价格。换句话说，每个经济体的调控部门都拥有一个主动权，人民币如果贬值，海外经济体同样也可以贬值，如果大家全部跟着贬值，最终的结果就互相抵消，是没有实际意义的。其次就是目前全球经济体都在同仇敌忾地来应对金融危机，如果某一个经济体首先挑起这样的贸易战，结果就是与邻为和还是与邻为敌的状况，这是一个非常敏感的话题，在目前世界各国都联手来对抗金融危机的大形势下是被动的。此外，对于中国的具体经济来说还有一个“热钱”的问题，如果把人民币的主动贬值作为一种政策导向，就有可能导致所谓的热钱外流。尽管目前社会对于热钱的规模不是很清楚，但各方面都觉得数量很庞大，而且国内的流动性也处于紧缺之中，对市场的冲击也是非常之大。所以从应对全球金融危机的角度上来讲，人民币不应该采取主动贬值的方向。

人民币升贬下的投资取舍

人民币汇率取决于“一揽子”货币的价值变动，除了美元外，还有其它参考货币如日元、韩元、新加坡元、欧元等。升值有利于进口，不利于出口，贬值正相反。据相关领域专家分析，人民币连续贬值也并不完全都带来的是负面效应，也会有很多行业因此而受益，因为人民币贬值对出口导向型公司业绩的影响将更加直接。

纺织服装行业：久旱逢甘霖

国金证券分析师张斌认为：“人民币贬值是扶持纺织服装行业的最好办法。近期，保就业是重要目标，也是轻工、纺织产业振兴的题中之义。但是，这两个产业的市场化程度太高，大大小小的企业很多，扶持政策就很难落到实处，要用行政手段扶持就更难，而人民币贬值恰能为其带来直接的利好。”金元证券分析师夏俊表示：“人民币贬值将刺激纺织服装行业的业绩增长。人民币长期升值的趋势吞噬了一些企业的部分利润，大量的利润在结汇环节损失掉，甚至有些企业经常出现在出口回款转换为人民币时产生负利润的情况。目前，人民币结束了长达3年的升值趋势而走向贬值，将极大地刺激日渐萎缩的服装纺织行业出口，又结合近期中国政府相继出台4万亿元投资拉动内需、大幅降低利率等一系列刺激经济增长的政策，这些对恢复出口企业特别是纺织服装企业的信心具有重要意义。”

 钢铁行业：总体利大于弊

中信建投证券分析师王认为：“目前人民币贬值对钢铁行业中的钢材出口是有好处的，但对企业进口铁矿石又不是好消息，这意味着支付成本有所上升。近几个月来，由于国际市场需求减弱，中国的钢铁出口一直呈下降趋势，2008年第4季度的出口订单下降了50%。”

“我的钢铁”研究中心分析师曾节胜认为：“由于国际需求减弱，人民币贬值对钢材的直接出口拉动不会太明显，如果比较出口钢材获得的收益和进口铁矿石多付出的成本，要考虑的因素比较多，测算也比较复杂。另外，还要考虑到人民币对美元贬值，但对其它货币来说还是升值。还要看到人民币贬值对于钢铁行业的下游行业如机械、家电等，也有间接的促进作用，这些行业产品的出口如果上升，也将带动国内钢材市场好转。总体来看，人民币贬值对钢铁行业应是利大于弊的。” 

航运业：面临一定利好

随着近期人民币对美元汇率的持续走低，作为出口行业的下游航运业也将由此受惠。由于人民币贬值可能会刺激国内纺织服装等行业的出口，从而给集装箱航运带来一定的利好，甚至刺激对于原材料的需求而带动干散货运输市场。不过，欧美等发达国家的需求是否能够回升，才是决定航运业景气程度的最终因素。

中国远洋运输（集团）总公司相关负责人表示，人民币贬值对于国内的出口行业将会有带动作用。而目前纺织服装等行业的产品出口主要依靠集装箱运输，因此一旦出口活跃，集装箱运输市场也会有所好转。目前，中国集装箱和干散货市场的收入总额分别约占到总收入比重的30%—40%，但由于近几年干散货市场的景气度明显高于集装箱市场，因此集装箱市场的利润贡献小于干散货市场。不过随着近期干散货市场趋于低迷，预计2009年两者的业务利润贡献比重会更加平衡。

中信证券分析师纪云涛认为：“除了对于集装箱行业的拉动，人民币贬值可能也会间接带动干散货市场的发展。由于中国出口的商品主要是纺织、家电等产品，如果出口量增加，对于原材料如钢铁、石化产品等的需求也会增加，从而提升干散货市场的景气度。目前，关键因素在于欧美等发达国家的需求是否会因为人民币贬值而有所增加。”

化工行业：喜忧参半

在影响化工行业发展的各项因素中，目前出现的人民币贬值趋势是一个不容忽视的环节。有分析人士认为，人民币贬值将加大进口企业的采购成本，因此对于属出口型的化工行业来说将会起到推波助澜的作用。

招商证券石化分析师张志宏表示：“对于一些以进口为主的石化企业，此前的人民币持续升值无疑有助于其降低采购成本。但如今人民币开始贬值，则对其采购的影响就偏向负面，意味着成本的上升。另一方面，人民币贬值又对化肥业带来比较大的提振作用，原因就在于该行业的出口比例相当大。以氮肥为例，其原料主要取自国内，而国内市场又趋于饱和，产品出口量很大，受到人民币贬值的正面影响也就较大。尽管进口化肥购进价格、海运费会因人民币贬值出现相应幅度的上升，但其它化肥产品如磷酸二铵、复合肥以及磷矿等产品的出口，则将会随着人民币的贬值而受到刺激，预计出口数量会进一步放大。”

家电行业：有助缓解出口压力

谈及人民币贬值对家电出口的影响，创维海外发展有限公司总裁匡宇斌认为：“在目前全球金融危机背景下，最严重的问题是需求下降了。此前人民币一路升值导致出口产品在海外的竞争力下降，现在人民币适度贬值对产品的出口大有好处。由于家电企业在产品销售结汇时大都采用美元结汇，因此人民币贬值可以增加企业的汇兑收益。”

国泰君安证券分析师王稹认为，首先，人民币贬值主要是针对美元而言，相对于其它货币来说还是升值的，所以对人民币升值或贬值问题应该从平衡“一揽子”货币的角度去考虑。其次，人民币贬值对于产品的出口肯定会有好处，但问题是现在外部需求比较有限，因而需求的价格弹性比较弱一些。不过从短期来看，人民币贬值肯定会缓解一些家电企业出口的压力。

汽车行业：出口或迎来反弹

随着目前人民币的持续贬值，多数汽车出口企业的压力稍减。安信汽车分析师孙木子认为：“未来汽车的出口量和出口利润可能会迎来反弹。此前，在人民币持续升值的大背景下，以美元计价的中国出口汽车变得不那么便宜，性价比下降。与此同时，出口汽车企业的利润也开始下降，2008年下半年，中国整车出口放慢，预计将为70万辆左右。而目前人民币的贬值将在一定程度上将制约国内进口车市场，使进口汽车价格的吸引力下降，届时进口汽车销量大涨的局面也将有所改观。”

当然，如果人民币适度升值，也可以给中国的经济发展带来一些好处：第一，扩大国内消费者对进口产品的需求，使其得到更多实惠。人民币升值给国内消费者带来的最明显变化就是手中的人民币“更值钱”了。如果出国留学或者旅游，将会花费比以前更少的钱，或者说花同样的钱，将能够办到比以前更多的事。如果购买进口车或其它进口产品，也会发现其价格变得“便宜”了，从而让老百姓得到更多实惠。第二，减轻进口能源和原料的成本负担。中国是一个资源总量相对匮乏的国家，在国际能源和原料价格不断上涨的情况下，国内企业势必承受越来越重的成本负担。进口能源和原料价格的上涨，不仅会抬高整个基础生产资料的价格，而且会吞噬位于产业链中下游企业的利润，使其赢利能力下降甚至亏损。如果人民币升值到合理的程度，便可大大减轻中国进口能源和原料的负担，从而使国内企业降低成本，增强竞争力。第三，有利于促进中国产业结构调整，改善中国在国际分工中的地位。长期以来，中国依靠廉价劳动密集型产品的数量扩张实行出口导向战略，使出口结构长期得不到优化，也使中国在国际分工中一直扮演“世界打工者”的角色。人民币适当升值，有利于推动出口企业提高技术水平，改进产品档次，从而促进中国的产业结构调整，改善中国在国际分工中的地位。第四，有助于缓和中国和主要贸易伙伴的关系。鉴于中国出口贸易发展的迅猛势头和日益增多的贸易顺差，中国的主要贸易伙伴一再要求人民币升值，如果对此简单地说“不”，将在一定程度上不断恶化中国与贸易伙伴的关系，给中国对外经贸的发展设置障碍。近年出现的针对中国的“反倾销”案急剧增加，就是一个很有说服力的证据。因此，人民币如果适当升值，不仅有助于缓和中国和主要贸易伙伴的关系，减少经贸纠纷，而且能够树立中国的良好国际形象。

人民币汇率波动百姓如何理财

人民币近期的走势让很多人有些摸不着头脑，更看不清方向。在外汇市场走势尚不明朗之前，面对此形势将对百姓的生活将带来哪些影响，人们该如何调整自己的理财规划等一系列问题，很多业内专家对此建议，人民币的贬值对于国内理财市场的影响相对较大，因此，百姓们应保持着“少动多看”的态度来对待外汇理财。中国银行理财师认为，百姓们假如近期有换汇需求，比如由于出国需要，想用人民币换一些美元，如果不是特别着急，这段时间最好先暂时搁下，因为美元在目前一段时间出现了强势上涨，估计短期内有回调的可能，人们可以逢低换汇。而百姓如果手中有美元现金，则目前不建议换成人民币，可以暂时先存入银行或购买外币理财产品。

专家解释说，银行对于近段时间人民币下调的反应也较为迅速，有不少银行相继推出了美元理财产品，欲借这波行情吸引持有美元的投资者。中信银行理财师建议市民应谨慎关注这类理财产品，因为目前汇率市场波动较大，还未到大幅投资的时机，对个人风险意识提出了更高的要求。如果人们手中已持有美元，可以暂时搁置半年以上静观形势发展，不建议美元理财产品。

从股市的角度来看，权威证券分析师认为，人民币下挫对于出口行业是一个显著利好，因此服装、纺织、航运以及中小板块的出口型企业将有明显收益。但是航空板块由于有外资负债，人民币贬值对于这类行业可以说是一个利空。因此百姓在投资时，要分行业看待目前人民币贬值带来的 不同行情，谨慎操作。比如此前人民币汇率对澳元、欧元、英镑等大幅升值，使出国留学和旅游的成本大幅降低，而目前的人民币贬值，则留学和旅游的成本势必在现有基础上增加，因此建议人们如果有留学和旅游的需求，不妨考虑将一半资金换成外汇，另一半资金留到2009年以备观察。

理财专家建议，目前有两种比较不错的办法可以应对人民币贬值对投资者造成的风险：第一，购买美元资产。人民币在短期内继续贬值的可能性较大，而在近期的金融危机中，美元却没有受到美国经济情况的影响而下跌，反而持续走强，已经成为事实上的避险货币，这也是造成其它货币贬值而美元一直走强的原因。而从此前的人民币汇率改革开始，人民币一直处于升值状态，很多投资者手中的外汇资产有相当一部分已经被兑换成了人民币资产。因此在近一段时间，建议投资者可以适当购买一些美元作为家庭的外汇资产进行配置，以便分散投资风险，应对人民币继续贬值带来的损失。第二，到股市短线“淘金”。人民币汇率的持续走低将给出口型企业带来利好，而此时股市的短线投资机会也开始闪现。统计显示，由于受到人民币汇率连续下跌的刺激，鲁泰、龙头股份、江苏舜天、美克股份、德豪润达等一些出口导向型企业的股票走势强劲。另外，人民币贬值对于纺织服装行业特别是从事进出口的公司来说是一个重大利好。然而尽管人民币贬值对出口型企业构成直接的利好，但从对资产负债定价的影响来看，像航空等外债型企业将因为汇兑损失而直接受损，因此百姓在进行投资时一定要谨慎操作。

放宽视野，在全球金融危机正逐渐蔓延之时，人民币的适度贬值是稳定中国经济、保持出口竞争力的重要举措，而中国经济的稳定之于动荡世界的意义不容置疑。在另外一个层面上，人民币汇率改革3年后，适度贬值也给中国的决策层提供了进一步改革的空间和时间。中国政府正在积极利用这个难得的机遇之窗，配合扩大内需的基本国策，推进金融、教育、交通、环境等现代服务业部门的市场化改革，通过增加有效供给来扩大内需。在这些行业得到充分发展后，可以积极吸纳制造业部门过剩的生产能力，并且由于打通了贸易部门和非贸易部门之间的障碍，使人民币真实汇率能准确反映国内经济的变化，从而合理地调配资源，促进中国经济的结构性改革。未来，中国政府会借此良机进一步推动人民币汇率形成机制的改革，扩大汇率双向波动的区间，使人民币汇率形成的市场化机制日趋完善，因为在某种意义上，机制的完善要比汇率水平更加重要。