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Ha Jiming: Energy Price Hikes a Wise Choice for China

Had the prices not been increased, the resulting subsidies would have been too heavy a burden for the country’s fiscal budget to bear.

Ha Jiming, chief economist of the China International Capital Corporation Limited, said recent price hikes for energy were wise. Had the prices not been increased, the resulting subsidies would have been too heavy a burden for the country’s fiscal budget to bear.

In addition, the rationalization of energy prices will aid the country’s economic restructuring and keep them from becoming a restraint on economic growth.

Ha predicts that international oil prices will increase to US$200 a barrel in the next cycle, and if China retains its current pricing for domestic oil products, it will have to spend as much as 7 percent of its gross domestic product on direct and indirect subsidies to oil products. That figure would be far more than the combined values of the central and local fiscal surplus and the profits of State-owned companies.

He said the recent ease in inflation has provided a good opportunity for China to rationalize energy prices. The market-based pricing of water, electricity and oil products should be speeded up and a resource taxes should be levied, he said. These measures, in addition to stricter environmental protection laws, rules and administrative measures, will punish high resource-consuming and highly polluting industries while encouraging the growth of the tertiary, high-tech and other low energy-consuming sectors. Only in this way can China’s industrial transformation be achieved.

Ha gave examples of different development approaches and results observed in Japan, Germany and some Latin American countries. In the 1960s and 70s, Mexico and Argentina were emerging as new markets like Japan and Germany. However, 40 years later, some have become developed countries while the others are still developing. He said this resulted from the application of different resource policies. Japan doubled its domestic price of oil products in the late 60s and adopted many rules, which led to low energy-consuming development and, the doubling in its efficiency of energy use over the past 30 years. But some other countries used subsidies and price controls to boost their demand; this resulted in inefficient use of resources. As a result, these countries are still lagging behind.

哈继铭：中国要实现经济转型，必须理顺能源价格

文/薛京晶

在近一年多的时间中，美国次贷危机带来的金融动荡已经历了一波又一波的扩散和深化，次贷危机已经发展成为金融衍生品危机，这场由华尔街掀起的“金融海啸”不仅仅考验着美国以及欧洲国家的智慧，中国也同样面临着严峻的考验。

中国国际金融有限公司首席经济学家哈继铭日前针对蔓延全球的美国华尔街经济危机时指出，能源价格上调是明智之选。如果油价不上调，用能源价格补贴未来将是财政的巨大负担，而且，中国要实现经济转型，必须理顺能源价格，以防其成为经济增长的瓶颈。

哈继铭认为，在宏观政策选择上，可谓是“与其松货币，不如松物价”，而近期通胀的回落，正是为理顺能源价格提供了契机。中国切忌由于眼前大宗商品价格的周期性回落而推迟理顺能源价格。

哈继铭表示，尽管目前的大宗商品价格由于全球经济周期性下降有所回落，但是，未来更年轻的新兴市场的崛起，将会成为下一轮大宗商品价格的弄潮儿，全球大宗商品价格还可能被推至更高水平。根据哈继铭所做的测算显示，如果中国保持目前国内成品油价格不变，下一周期油价达200美元，那么，中国用于成品油的直接与间接补贴，会相当于GDP的7%，远高于中国的中央、地方财政盈余与国企利润三者之和，在经济快速发展的过去20年，这三者之和仍低于GDP的1%。如果不调整油价，届时，中国将承受巨大财政压力。

哈继铭称，中国未来是要跻身于发达国家行列，还是永远与发展中国家为伍，在很大程度上取决于能源政策。20世纪60—70年代，经济增长迅速的“新兴市场”包括日本、德国，还包括墨西哥、阿根廷等拉美国家。然而40年后，日本、德国成为发达国家，墨西哥等拉美国家依然处于发展中阶段，这是由于两者采取了截然不同的发展路径：日本、德国等国在经历了20世纪70年代的高油价后，采取了很多节能降耗的政策，如日本在20世纪60年代末—70年代初，提高国内成品油价格1倍以上，并通过大量法规，促使其走上了低能耗经济发展道路，能源使用效率在过去30年提高了1倍；而其它发展中国家却采取补贴、价格管制等方式刺激需求，能源利用效率过低，目前仍不及发达国家20世纪70年代的水平。

在哈继铭看来，中国应当不失时机地理顺能源价格，加快水、电以及成品油价格的市场化进程，并开征资源税，再辅以严格的环保节能法律条例和财政手段，才能惩罚高能耗、高污染行业，鼓励服务业和高科技等低能耗行业的发展，推动环保节能设备以及新能源开发，最终实现产业结构的升级。