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Global Financial Crisis, What's in It for You

For Chris Wang, a producer working at a famous American mobile phone game company in Beijing, the joy of his flight to his new company is beginning to give way to a grim reality.

The wind under his wings included a good salary and a lucrative package that included 5,000 shares of the company’s stock at employees’ prices. Now, just a couple of months later, with the US stock market wounded and failing because of an escalating sub-prime loan crisis, the price of his shares have shrunk by more than 30 percent. Worse still, the company has sent its employees an e-mail in which it asserts it will “review” compensation packages in the coming year.

No matter how independent the Chinese financial system is of the United States', the ripples (some say tsunami) of the financial crisis on the other end of the earth has reached China; whether the trouble is ankle deep or will overwhelm its victims, tangible effects of the crises are likely to be felt by common people in China and the rest of Asia.

Only emerging into view is the full extent of the problems facing the global economy; yet, thousands of foreign company employees and even more ordinary Chinese are already beginning to sense the reality of the crisis in their own ways. The Chinese economy will be affected in many ways.

Foreign Investment Shrinks

China’s huge pool of foreign reserves, a large portion of which is invested in US dollar-denominated assets, including Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bonds, are being pummelled. It is estimated that of the US$1.8 trillion foreign reserves, around US$1 trillion is invested in US treasury and institutional bonds. At the end of June 2008, China held US$503.8 billion in T-bonds, accounting for 5.3 percent of the outstanding balance and nearly 20 percent of those held by foreign investors. Figures from the US Department of Treasury suggest that by the end of April 2008, China held US$423.3 billion worth of government-backed agency long-term securities, among which Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bonds were estimated at about US$376 billion in value.

Now, with a US economic slowdown turning from speculation to a reality, pressures giving rise to the US dollar’s depreciation are more persistant and the liquidity of US treasury bonds is weakening.

Shen Minggao, chief consultant with the prestigious Caijing magazine, said that a bailout could lead to new purchases of US Treasury bonds by China if the US government buys bad assets from American financial institutions. Rescued financial firms would then use those funds from the government to invest in China. In effect, China would exchange its high-quality assets for American T-bonds.

What’s more, China’s sovereign fund—the China Investment Corporation—has seen its foreign investment depreciate since its establishment with US$200 billion form foreign exchange reserves. The first of its major investments, US$3 billion in Blackstone, has suffered the most: its 10 percent equity in Blackstone had evaporated in value by about 41 percent by the end of July 2008, as the stock price of the company dropped from US$29.61 when they were acquired to US$17.29 per share.

Learning from these lessons, the CIC tried to minimize its risks when it bought convertible bonds of Morgan Stanley at a fixed conversion rate. Still, with a truly deep and wide financial crisis, it seems no one will be spared. Morgan Stanley’s shares have been declining in value, to US$38.57 in mid-July and US$17.65 at the close of trading in New York on October 7 from a 52-week high of US$69.23. If this trend continues, CIC’s investment returns can hardly be guaranteed. 

But economists believe the real situation may not be as gloomy as the numbers suggest. Considering the negative actual interest rates resulting from high inflation rate and lower deposit interest rates, the renminbi, the Chinese currency, has already been depreciating, if not as quickly as the country’s dollar assets. With the US government takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac assets, the bonds of the two companies possessed by Chinese investors face little risk of default.

“It is good news for China as a Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bond holder. There is no need to sell them, as the default risk is nearly zero,” said Chen Zhiwu, a tenured professor at the Yale School of Management. However, a shortage of credit in the troubled US financial system and uncertainties among foreign investors would drive up the cost of funds in the future. Therefore, with an increase in the cost of funds, the long-term trend in bond prices should be downward, rendering losses to their holders, according to Chen.

The sub-prime related bonds of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may be guaranteed by the US government, but not without cost. To bail out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the US government will have to issue more treasury bonds, a move likely to depreciate the US dollar. “Therefore, in the long run, China should distribute its new foreign reserves to non-dollar currencies and assets,” said Chen.

Exports Affected

Among the three driving forces of the economy, exports have always been a major contributor to China’s GDP growth since the country's opening up. Statistics show that exports account for 40 percent of China’s nominal GDP (gross domestic product). The low cost of resources and labour have contributed much to the country’s rapid growth (and lower costs in consuming countries) in the past three decades. High-quality and inexpensive “made-in-China” products can be found everywhere in foreign markets. The “spend money before you earn it” habit of Americans has provided a broad market for Chinese-made products. But now, both the impulse and purchasing power of American consumers are being severely constrained.

Stephen Roach, chairman of Morgan Stanley in Asia, predicts that the US growth will slow from an average of 3.2 percent over the past 13 years to no more than 2 percent over the next two to three years. Consumption growth is likely to halve to about 2 percent as debt burdens are pared back. Its credit-driven consumption model will be highly contracted if not changed completely, which will inevitably affect Chinese exports. It is estimated that for every percent decline in America’s growth rate, there will be a subsequent 6 percent decrease in China’s export growth.

Statistics show that since 2000, China’s exports to the United States have maintained an average growth rate of more than 20 percent. However, since 2007, the growth rate has been declining, from 20.4 percent in the first quarter to 15.6 percent and 12.4 percent in the second and third quarter. In the first seven month of 2008, China’s exports to the United States showed a year-on-year growth of 9.95 percent, which is the first single-digit growth rate since 2002. Industry insiders believe the decline will continue as the sub-prime crisis deepens.

"It just underscores the fact that when you have a vibrant but very large export sector, when you have an external shock and you don't have a lot of dynamism on the internal demand side, you have greater risks to growth," Roach was reported by Reuters as saying over the weekend during a meeting of the World Economic Forum in Tianjin.

What’s more, as the crisis spreads across the world, China’s exports to the EU, Japan and other regions will also be affected.

Market Confidence Badly Hit

Although relatively independent, China’s A-share market is from as strong as the world market; it be influenced by the latter.

The stock market in Shanghai and Shenzhen has lost up to 70 percent of its value since October 2007, when the indexes peaked. Some 20 trillion yuan (US$ 2.8 trillion) of market value was lost during the fall.

Many Chinese financial institutions have suffered losses from investments in sub-prime-mortgage-supported bonds and their derivatives; the gloomy world market will inevitably affect China’s domestic market in the course of economic globalization; what’s may be worse is declining confidence in the future of the world economy, which could probably be dragged into recession by the United States. That, in turn, could result in irrational selling of stocks, especially in an immature market such as in China. Russia, for instance, has suspended share sales several times in recent weeks.

Speculation on the Chinese stock market is serious. But this is because value-investing instead of gambling on the market requires the completion of relevant rules and regulations to the market, where the real conditions of the listed companies can be truly reflected. Insider trading and stock manipulation problems remain unsolved in China too, said Zhang Liqun, researcher with the Development and Research Center of the State Council. Therefore, the market is largely affected by a sense of confidence.

“Stock holders are very irrational. Many people buy when price-earning ratios exceed 100, while when the market is heading down, they wouldn’t buy even though many stocks have fallen below their issuance price,” said Zhang. “There is no clear criterion for judgments, and everyone is betting their instincts. Therefore, the biggest problem of China’s stock market now is the lack of confidence. The benchmark index decreasing from 6,000 points to 2,000 points has been a heavy blow to market confidence. The economic slowdown broken bubbles in the real estate sector, more troubled companies and the financial crisis in the US have made the worries worse.”

Domestic Consumption to the Rescue?

China is now faced with problems in its financial sector and also a possible weakening in the growth momentum of the Chinese economy, which has already shown some signs of slowing, as its GDP growth in 2008 is now forecasted at lower than 10 percent, the first single digit growth since 2003. And if the world economy is dragged to recession by the US financial crisis, further affecting China’s exports and other aspects of the economy, what can China do?

The answer given by most economists and officials has been to change China's growth pattern, from export-driven to consumption-driven.

Actually, even before the sub-prime crisis emerged, China had already realized the problems in the export-driven growth, losing its competitiveness in the exports to Indonesia, Vietnam and many other developing countries where resources and labour forces are even cheaper. And 30 years of performing as the world’s workshop at the lowest ring of the global industry chain has help China accumulate its economic basis. China is no longer satisfied with sharing the slightest piece of profit, but is keen to move forward to undertake more sophisticated jobs in the international division of labour. Therefore, China has taken initiatives to upgrade its economic structure to focus on its services, creative and other  industries with higher value added prospects.

Even if there is no American financial crisis, the appreciation of renminbi and a decrease in tax rebates, China’ s exports are still going to be squeezed into a bottleneck. Outer effects and interior policy adjustments have established the process, said Shen Minggao with Caijing magazine.  

Relying on domestic consumption in China is not only necessary but possible. Spending by households accounted for just over 36 percent of gross domestic product in 2006, down from 45 percent five years earlier. The corresponding figure for the United States and India are around 72 percent and 60 percent, according to a Reuters report. This suggests a great potential for the consumption growth.

However, in the case of China, people need to be cajoled into saving less. To give consumers confidence to spend, Beijing must provide affordable health care and educations and improve its pensions system. But setting up these administrative structures to ensure extra public money is well spent takes time.

"My worry is that there are a lot of things that China can do to boost domestic consumption, including on the fiscal side, but none of these things are going to happen very quickly," said Michael Pettis, a professor of finance at Peking University.

"History shows that the shift from export- to domestic demand-led growth is long and often difficult. It's very hard to see what you can do to force the shift in the next year."

Seeking to turn that trend around, Beijing has launched a number of initiatives in the past few years to put more money in farmers' pockets and reduce their need to save for emergencies such as illness.

The government has cancelled the ages-old agricultural tax, scrapped fees for primary education and is building up a rudimentary system of medical insurance for rural areas.

Since the beginning of 2008, a pilot scheme has been initiated, entitling each rural family in Shandong and two other provinces to a 13 percent government rebate on the purchase of up to two television sets, two refrigerators  and two mobile handsets.

The subsidies are part of a package of policies aimed at spurring domestic consumption and improving the lot of the country's roughly 740 million rural residents, who have not benefited as much as people in cities from the economy's roaring growth.

Economists have also suggested that the government should cut the tax burdens of common people to spur consumption.

To have more money retained in enterprises and the common people and reimburse the middle- and low-income families using tax rebates will help boost domestic spending, which will advance economic growth and restructuring, said Chen Zhiwu.

Macro-control economic policies have also guided the economic aspirations of the government. After five-long years of tightening monetary and fiscal policies to battle inflation, especially 11 interest rate hikes in 2007 to fight soaring CPI growth, the People's Bank of China, the central bank, reversed course in mid-September 2008, trimming interest rates for borrowing and easing bank lending restrictions. The measure was taken after the top leadership decided at a key meeting in Beijing on

July 25 that the major economic goals should shift to sustaining growth, though, at the same time, keeping inflation at bay.

Concerted Efforts Needed

Restructuring the growth model could be a strategic decision, but would take a long time to accomplish. Now, some economists suggest that a sluggish economy and depreciated assets could be a good bargain for China’s global investment.

“I think if you look at global merger and acquisition opportunities, it’s actually becoming a good time for Chinese companies to look internationally as we have seen recently the ICBC and Bank of China making very substantial mergers and acquisitions across Europe,” James S. Turley said in an interview with Caijing magazine when he was in Tianjin to attend the World Economic Forum.

On the other hand, some believe that China should be cautious when chasing bargain-hunting opportunities.

Chinese banks should be rational about overseas M&As, said Fan Wenzhong, deputy director, Department of Policies and Rules, China Banking Regulatory Commission. He said China banks should decide their expansion plans according to their strengths and by using proper risk assessment.

“Never dream of buying at the lowest point of the market. The greedy mind is the fundamental reason of all the crisis and bubbles in the financial sector,” Fan was reported by Caijing as saying.

A rational investor should have his ruAles, which tells you to invest when you think is reasonable when the asset price and market situation reach a certain point and sell when you think bubbles occur, said Fan.

 But no matter what, there is no good for every country if the world economy enters into recession. Faced with the worst crisis since the Great Depression, the world needs concerted efforts to get through.

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao called for different countries to cooperate in addressing the current economic crisis at the 2008 World Economic Forum. He said China will do its best to maintain strong, stable and rapid economic growth, and that’s what China may be able to contribute to the world economy.

世界应对华尔街“金融风暴”

编写/薛京晶

这是一个令世界金融界和经济界都紧张不安的时刻，美国华尔街掀起的“金融海啸”正考验着美国政府、欧洲国家政府乃至全人类的智慧，人类正生活在一个越来越小，联系越来越紧的世界上。

在近一年多的时间中，美国次贷危机带来的金融动荡已经历了一波又一波的扩散和深化，次贷危机已经发展成为金融衍生品危机，而且愈发暴露出演变为银行信用危机的可能。随着金融损失飞速扩大，在次贷危机的演化和发展中，已先后迎来3次大规模的金融风暴，暴露出的问题也一次比一次严重，倒下的金融机构规模和由此引发的全球金融市场震荡程度持续升级。第一次金融风暴的风暴眼是美国新世纪金融公司的破产。第二次则是2007年10月美国第五大投资银行（以下简称投行）贝尔斯登的破产。2008年9月以来，美国最大的两家住房抵押贷款公司“两房(房利美、房地美)”和全球最大的保险公司美国国际集团因陷入困境被美国政府接管、美国第四大投行雷曼兄弟破产、第三大投行美林因巨亏被美国银行收购，一系列的爆炸性事件掀起了第三次金融风暴。

就像美国联邦储备委员会（以下简称美联储）前主席格林斯潘所说：“美国正陷于“百年一遇”的金融危机中。这是我职业生涯中所见最严重的一次金融危机，它将持续成为一股“腐蚀性”力量，美国躲过经济衰退的几率小于50%……”这场从华尔街刮来“金融飓风”，不仅刮倒了美国金融巨头，更触动了全球的经济神经，股市、油价暴跌，黄金期货大涨，汇市震荡……全世界都在感受着金融风暴之痛。

美国上百家银行随之倒闭

2008年9月15日，对于美国华尔街来说，也许可以称之为“历史上最黑暗的一天”。

这一天，在华尔街生存了158年的老牌投行雷曼兄弟申请破产保护。虽然此前雷曼兄弟仍然在和英国巴克莱银行进行部分业务的谈判，但是已经不可避免地走向“寿终正寝”。如果说雷曼的倒闭并不意外，那么就在同一天，美国银行与美国第三大证券公司美林证券达成协议，以每股29美元、合计约500亿美元的价格收购后者，这的确大大出乎了市场的预料。

短短6个月的时间，贝尔斯登、雷曼兄弟和美林证券先后宣布破产或被收购，美国五大投行中仅存高盛和摩根士丹利。雷曼兄弟的倒闭是美国房地产持续滑坡以及全球信贷危机进一步升级的结果，市场担心其破产还可能动摇全球金融系统的基础。而人们担心的是雷曼兄弟的轰然倒地也许将推倒多米诺骨牌，后面将有一长串大公司要跟着倒下。　　

国际投行瑞士信贷结构性金融产品交易部主任Jay Guo说：“目前，随着次级债的爆发，美国已有十几家大大小小的银行破产，接下来，估计还会有上百家银行加入这一行列，这其中并不是每家银行都会有接盘者的，而且结局很可能是大部分的银行没有人来购买。”当然，也会有一些银行可以幸免于难，在20世纪30年代时，美国金融界有大量的银行破产，作为经验教训和为了防止人们因为担心银行破产存款不保而不愿意存钱，美国政府成立了FBIG机构，凡是与该机构签约的银行如果遇到破产，FBIG将会偿还这些银行储户10万美元以下的存款额。

世界知名投资大师罗杰斯说：“美国以及全球的金融行业正在进入一个混乱年代，而且这种情况在未来的几年内只会越来越糟，总之，金融业在近几年内都将会是一个表现差得可怕的行当。”美国纽约州州长David Paterson也在此期间表示，华尔街最坏的情况下可能会裁员3万人。

恐慌蔓延，全球股市集体跳水

这场蔓延全球的经济危机爆发后，作为经济“晴雨表”的全球股市，在第一时间以“暴跌”的状态对华尔街金融风暴作出反应。

美国是金融风暴的源头所在地。2008年9月15日，纽约股市遭遇恐慌性抛售。道琼斯指数重挫逾500点，标准普尔下跌近5%，创下自“9·11”恐怖袭击以来的最大单日跌幅。遭受巨额亏损的全球最大保险公司——美国国际集团股价缩水61%，而美国五大投行中仅存的高盛和摩根士丹利也未能幸免，在当日的股价分别下跌12%和14%。

在欧洲地区，英国、法国、德国、俄罗斯等主要股市在当天也遭到重挫：伦敦股市《金融时报》100种股票平均价格指数跌3.92%；法兰克福股市DAX指数跌2.74%；巴黎股市CAC40指数跌3.78%。

在亚太地区，2008年9月16日，日本东京股市日经股指暴跌4.95%，创下3年来的新低点。在刚开盘，暴跌之风就蔓延至所有金融类股票，导致一些出现在雷曼兄弟公司大宗债权人名单上的日本金融机构损失惨重。拥有雷曼兄弟4.63亿美元债权的青空银行股票下跌了20%；韩国证券交易所因股市暴跌而启动暂停交易程序。

在中国，2008年9月15日，央行宣布下调贷款利率及部分金融机构人民币存款准备金率，这对股市而言是一个积极的政策信号，但受雷曼兄弟引起的金融风暴拖累，使得A股在利好政策出台的背景下，于9月16日依然出现了较大幅度的下跌，上证综指失守2000点重要心理关口，并出现4%以上的巨大跌幅。中国台北地区的股市也在9月16日跳空低开逾300点，8大类股皆墨，指数终场下跌4.88%。

金融业的震荡引发了市场对经济前景的担忧，这使很多人自然联想到1929年的经济危机。国际油价从2008年9月15日开始大幅下挫，纽约商品交易所10月交货的轻质原油期货价格在盘前的电子交易中最低跌至每桶94.13美元，到收盘报每桶95.71美元。这是自2008年2月以来纽约市场油价首次收于100美元以下。伦敦国际石油交易所10月交货的轻质原油期货价格则下跌5.20美元，收于每桶92.38美元。

金融形势恶化，还引发了人们对“硬通货”的避险需求。纽约商品交易所在2007年12月交货的黄金期货价格于2008年9月15日大幅反弹，每盎司比前一交易日大涨22.5美元，收于787美元，涨幅为2.9%。

各国政要纷纷出面，力挺市场信心

为避免全球金融市场出现系统性风险，世界各国政要先后公开发表言论以稳定“军心”，避免恐慌心理蔓延。

美国总统布什在此期间表示：“美国经济足够健康，能够经受住金融市场危机带来的冲击。”布什认为从长期来看，“相信我们的资本市场灵活并富于弹性，能够应对这些调整。”美国财政部长保尔森在白宫举行的会议上也表示，美国金融体系“健康且有适应力”，他还表示目前正与各方合作，将出台新措施，确保金融市场的稳定和有序。

加拿大总理哈珀也发表讲话：虽然美国金融市场动荡，但美国经济显示出良好弹性。加拿大中央银行的发言人也表示，加拿大金融体系良好，如有必要将向金融体系注资。

欧洲中央银行管理委员会成员、德国中央银行行长韦伯认为，德国金融体系整体强劲，对外部冲击的抵御能力也更强，因此并不担心德国银行业出现问题。

德国财政部长施泰因丒布吕克随之也表示，尽管美国发生的金融危机是几十年来最为严重的，但他预计不会在欧洲引发多米诺骨牌效应。他认为金融危机对德国实体经济的影响是有限的，金融危机的程度不应被高估。

法国财政部长拉加德在发表讲话时表示，法国政府正密切关注美国金融市场动向，但她认为雷曼兄弟破产对法国金融业的影响有限。

化解金融震荡，全球“总动员”

美国华尔街金融危机以迅雷不及掩耳之势波及全球。对可能重蹈1929年经济危机的恐慌，迫使世界各国央行改变此前趋紧的货币政策，一场化解金融危机的动员在世界各国迅速展开……

为缓解雷曼兄弟破产可能导致的市场流动性紧缺，美联储在2008年9月14日随即宣布出台一系列扩大流动性的新措施，包括扩大金融机构从美联储贷款的抵押品范围，以及将部分贷款拍卖的频率从每两周一次提高到每周一次。9月16日，美联储向金融系统注入500亿美元资金，以帮助缓解信贷紧缩，稳定金融市场。

此外，10家美国及外资银行还已经开始商讨筹建一个700亿美元的资金池，以救助陷入危机的金融机构，并确保雷曼兄弟公司破产不会危及全球金融体系。

而在此期间，欧洲主要央行也紧随着美联储的救市步伐。欧洲中央银行向隔夜拆借市场紧急注资300亿欧元(约430亿美元)，并表示将密切关注金融市场情况，并采取措施继续注资。英国中央银行也宣布向金融市场拍卖50亿英镑(约90亿美元)贷款，期限为3天。瑞士中央银行宣布，将以1.9%的隔夜利率向市场注入流动性。澳大利亚中央银行则通过回购操作向市场注资21亿澳元(约17亿美元)。日本中央银行行长白川方明表示，将向市场提供充足的资金，并将通过货币市场操作确保金融市场稳定，此外还为短期金融市场注资1.5万亿日元(约144亿美元)。俄罗斯总统梅德韦杰夫也向工商界人士保证，政府将确保银行系统的流动性。

廉价消费逆市突围成新宠

由于金融海啸席卷全球，昔日薪酬丰厚的金融从业员如今损失惨重，成为大输家。但危机中必有商机，一些本来以服务平民为主的快餐店和廉价超市却门庭若市，受到很多“勒紧裤带”的市民光顾，盈利甚至比市场繁荣时还多。

据香港《文汇报》的报道称，由于股市大跌，高薪厚职已成朝不保夕，不少中、高收入家庭的日常支出大缩水，即使要外出用餐，都会尽量避免到高档餐厅消费，而是选择光顾快餐店和中式外卖。在英国伦敦，大众化餐饮场所如麦当劳、薄饼连锁店等都已挤满外出用餐的客人。根据报道，麦当劳集团发言人表示，麦当劳计划继续扩充店面，希望在英国多开10家分店，并增加4000个职位。此外，麦当劳正与世界各地多达50位投资者磋商，希望为旗下特许经营店提供融资。与此同时，还有很多行业都同样受惠于金融海啸。除了快餐店外，一些廉价超市也成为减少消费下的赢家之一；油价高企令单车销量大增；银行收紧信贷，当铺也成为人们“融资”的好去处。

中国央行亮剑西方金融危机

面对严峻的世界经济形式，中国国务院决定自2008年10月9日起，对储蓄存款利息所得暂免征收个人所得税。

同时，中国人民银行也决定，从2008年10月15日起下调存款类金融机构人民币存款准备金率0.5个百分点；从10月9日起下调一年期人民币存贷款基准利率各0.27个百分点，其它期限档次存贷款基准利率作相应调整。

对此，中国国家发展和改革委员会对外经济研究所所长张燕生在接受媒体采访时表示，此次央行的“二率齐降”是2008年9月15日下调二率之后的政策继续，也是央行以更加积极灵活的货币政策来应对国际国内经济形势的有效举措。张燕生认为，华尔街金融危机正向实体经济侵袭，全球新一轮降息行动正在展开。从国内经济形势看，拉动国民经济发展的“三驾马车”疲态渐现，经济减速风险日益增大。在这种情形下，需要更加积极灵活的财政政策和货币政策来应对。他认为，降息会使买房者与售房者的财务成本下降，因此对两者来说都是利好消息。此外，“二率齐降”也有利于提振市场信心，但是由于A股受国际市场联动影响较大，其近期走势还有待于进一步观察。

而中国国家信息中心经济预测部副主任、首席经济师祝宝良认为，应该对中国经济发展走向仍持乐观态度。尽管中国经济面临一些问题，但是横向比较起来，中国经济是在全球经济中表现最好的。尽管经济增长有下滑的危险，但是，中国政府有很多可以保持经济平稳较快增长的措施。　　

“比如中国的财政政策。发达国家想刺激经济增长也要采用货币、财政政策，但这些国家往往债务占GDP比重很大，财政赤字占GDP比重很大。但是中国情况不同，这两年财政还有盈余，债务占GDP的比重非常小。即使中国经济可能还会下滑，中国宏观经济手段非常多，可以有非常大的余地动用财政政策，保持经济增长速度稳定在一个水平上。”祝宝良分析说。

 而且，相比国外来说，中国有广阔的投资市场。“中国还有很多的领域有待去投资，比如城市基础设施建设，包括住房建设，经济适用房、廉租房的建设等。而国外的经济建设已完成，投资面很少。”祝宝良由此认为，中国经济发展的走向是比较乐观的，即使它再调整，仍可用一些宏观调控手段，使得经济增长保持在一定的水平上。

世界专家预测全球经济发展

2008年9月27日，“2008天津夏季达沃斯论坛”在中国天津开幕，“这是在美国华尔街出现金融危机后第一次召开的国际经济会议，所以可以想像这次危机显然会影响会议的议程。”世界经济论坛主席施瓦布在论坛新闻发布会上指出，华尔街金融危机会对全球经济产生重大影响，会改变人们做事的方式。

参加论坛的各国专家指出，金融是现代经济的核心。然而，信用消费过度、金融衍生品风险累积、部分投资者投机盛行，加之监管缺位等共同造成了华尔街金融危机。这场危机虽然发生在虚拟经济领域，但深刻地影响着美国经济未来的走向，也不可避免地波及到全球。“现在金融体系的变动肯定会对实体经济产生很大的影响……世界经济的放缓是毫无疑问的。”施瓦布说。

对于美国金融危机是否会造成经济衰退，与会者们各持己见。“此次金融危机将对美国以后的实体经济造成损害。”耶鲁大学金融系教授陈志武预测，美国在2008年下半年几乎肯定出现衰退，并且衰退至少持续一年时间。德国基尔世界经济所则预测：德国这个欧元区第一大经济体的不景气状况将持续到2009年年底。一个高增长、低通胀的全球化黄金时代已经终结，美国、欧洲经济将维持较长时间的低迷，全球经济也将步入明显减速的下行期。而德勤会计师事务所首席执行官奎励杰认为：“‘衰退’或‘全球衰退’的概念过于广泛，单个行业或单个市场会经历紧缩。各国央行已经采取了一连串的金融手段，亚太地区特别是中国经济增长强劲，因此不会出现全球经济的衰退。”“艰难的经济发展阶段对创新型企业家来说是难得的机遇。”美国安永会计师事务所主席兼首席执行官詹戴利说，我们面临的艰难展示出全球市场有新的需求，如果能够满足了这些新需求就能实现增长。大公司在经济困难的时期第一反应常是会损失什么，但是新的成长型公司会从中看到机遇。

来自世界各国的与会者们还专门针对中国今后如何保持令人羡慕的发展速度展开了重点讨论。“过去的成功并不能保证未来的成功。中国经济在未来继续保持上行曲线的压力非常大，中国经济必须进行转型。”在谈到中国今后面临的挑战时，德勤全球首席执行官奎励杰这样直言不讳地说。英国德意志银行副董事长科赫·韦瑟认为：“从过度依靠出口的增长转变为依靠内需的增长，是中国未来的一项重要任务。此外，中国改革开放还需要完善社会保障制度、养老制度，加强教育投资。在快速增长的同时，还要加强能源资源的节约。如果我们看一看中国的能源消耗指数，就知道在这方面也有很多工作需要做。”中国建设银行董事长郭树清认为，未来的经济发展最重要的是要解决三个问题：首先是人力资本的发展问题；第二是要改善法律制度；第三是需要有适当的宏观经济政策。

尽管未来中国经济将面临更多的挑战，但几乎所有参加此次论坛的企业家都对中国的未来持有信心。施瓦布乐观地预言：“中国的经济增长率可能降低，但仍会保持在８%至９%的增长水平。即便是世界经济出现放缓的形势，中国依然是世界上增长最快的经济体之一。”SOCOTA集团总裁萨林姆·伊斯梅尔也说：“中国将成为世界经济的一个主导力量。过去的成功不是结束，而是开始。”

另外，根据中国社会科学院在2008年10月10日发布的《2008年秋季报告》预测：2008年中国国民经济的增长速度将有所放缓，GDP增长率将达到10.1％左右。报告分析指出，自2008年以来，中国经济社会发展经受了近几年最为严峻的挑战和重大考验。尽管国际经济形势发生了重大变化，对中国经济的发展产生了较大的不利影响，但是总的来看，国际经济不利因素和严重自然灾害没有改变中国经济发展的基本面，国民经济继续朝着宏观调控预期方向发展，中国经济保持了增长速度较快、价格涨幅趋缓、结构有所改善的较好态势。

报告预测，2008年中国GDP将增长10.1％左右，增幅比2007年回落1.8个百分点。因此，如果2009年国际经济政治环境不再发生显著恶化，国内不出现大范围的严重自然灾害和其它重大问题，中国GDP的增长率虽然将继续有所回落，但仍有望保持9.5％左右的较快增长。

然而，相对于广大发展中国家而言，西方发达国家的金融业高度发达，并有着“现代、高效和专业”的光鲜外表。通过次贷危机，发达国家有必要反省，发展中国家更要引以为戒。在全球化时代，高度发展的金融业既是机遇，但同时也暗藏了巨大风险。如何趋利避害，是所有国家都必须考虑的问题。