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July Market: Still Waiting for the Olympic Boom?

Chinese investors were disappointed again in July after waiting in vain for big surges in May and June. Despite a slew of calls from high-profile policy-makers and official media outlets for a stable market, the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index continued to slide in early July, slumping to 2,566.5 points on July 3, the lowest since the market started its losing streak from the 6,024-point peak last October.

For most of July, the market was trapped in the doldrums, mostly fluctuating within a narrow 200-point band. The Shanghai index rallied 1.45 percent in the month while the Shenzhen Component Index rose slightly by more than 1 percent. The overall monthly turnover for both A and B shares amounted to 2.32 trillion yuan (US$324.8 billion), up 38 percent over June.

Among the top gainers were shares of agricultural producers, environmental companies and those that may benefit from Shanghai’s Disney plan and the Beijing Olympic Games, as well as over-sold real estate shares, which were boosted by a rumour that the State may intervene in the sector to protect housing prices from a devastating slump.

Most of the top gainers were small-cap shares, which are preferred by speculative investors. The blue chips failed to gain favour with investors, indicating a dominant speculative mood in the market, analysts said.

Coal shares, led by Shanxi Xishan Coal and Electricity and Pingdingshan Coal Mining, remained heavy losers as the hangover of the price cap in Shandong and Shanxi provinces continued to weigh them down even before the temporary intervention of the State in coal prices dealt a fresh blow. The net capital outflow from coal shares in July reached 7.1 billion yuan (US$994 million), according to Topview statistics.

The top sellers were mutual funds and the colossal social security fund, indicating weak confidence of major domestic institutional investors in the market. In contrast, the QFII and domestic brokerages became major buyers on the market.

In the run-up to the Olympic Games, investors had anticipated a booming market. Although they failed to have their wishes fulfilled, the regulators did send a strong message that the market should be at least kept stable without drastic slumps as in previous months. China Securities Regulatory Commission Chairman Shang Fulin said the commission would make market stabilization a top priority for the rest of the year. The official media outlets, including the Xinhua News Agency and the People’s Daily, had published a series of articles boosting investor morale.

What had anchored, if not boosted, investor mood, however, was the improving predictions for macroeconomic prospects. The macroeconomic fundamentals saw no substantial improvement, and may even have worsened in July but frequent inspections by high-profile officials in regions hardest hit by rising costs and credit tightening and the ensuing policy shift from preventing overheating to stabilizing growth sent the market an unmistakable signal that the State will start to loosen its existing tight policies, although the extent of any easing remains unknown.

In the first half of July, national leaders visited the coastal regions and major economic powerhouses to assess the effects of the tightening policies coupled with yuan appreciation and rising labour costs. They returned to Beijing and convened a series of meetings to discuss and decide what action would best suit the real economic scenario. Analysts have widely interpreted the move as a shift to an easier policy stance, which will help stabilize the economy and stock market sentiment.

The relatively small floatations of previously locked-in stocks also helped prevent further tumbles in July, when the total capitalization of such shares was 45.5 billion yuan (US$6.37 billion), compared with 99.4 billion yuan (US$13.9 billion) in June and 210 billion yuan (US$29.4 billion) expected for August.

The effect of international market performance and, more crucially, oil prices, was substantial. The big swings in US shares, especially financial stocks battered by the worsening sub-prime crisis, often led to fluctuations in domestic A shares. The role of oil prices, meanwhile, is much larger in fluctuations in domestic share prices. The continual downturns in international crude oil prices––from the peak of US$147 per barrel to about US$120 a barrel––have helped bolster the domestic market as they eased investor worries that rising costs would eat into corporate earnings, analysts said.

In a survey by major stock Web site Panorama, 45 percent of the 3,500 respondents said they outperformed the July market by more than 20 percent, providing one bright point for an otherwise lacklustre July market.

七月股市：静候姗姗来迟的奥运行情

文/辛志明

2008年7月的沪深股市依旧波澜不惊，在经历了5、6月的失意以后，期待出现“红色7月”的投资者们再次失望。尽管管理层屡次号召稳定市场，无奈上证综合指数再次突破自2007年10月创下历史高点后调整的新低点2566点，最高点达到2952点，全月上证指数虽最终上涨1.45％，却上攻乏力, 奥运行情仍前景未明。

受国际油价再创新高、再融资压力及对未来经济担忧的影响，7月首日两市均大幅下挫，上证指数再破2700点并创调整以来新低——最终收于2651.6点，下跌3.09%，为7月的股市行情蒙上了一层阴影。尽管本月收阳，但市场缺乏持续的热点，大部分时间在200点的空间内窄幅振荡，这也许是意在“维稳”的管理层更愿意看到的。两市成交量有所放大，A、B股合计成交量比6月放大38%。

全月涨幅居前的板块是农业、环保、上海迪斯尼和北京奥运受益板块以及超跌的地产股。受国家放松房地产信贷政策以及维护房地产市场稳定的传言影响，房地产板块表现活跃。同时，上涨活跃的股票多是游资关注的小盘股和题材股，大盘蓝筹股表现低迷，涨幅排名前10位的均非机构重仓股，显示投机气氛明显，市场对后市信心不足。

受6月部分省市限制电煤价格影响，煤炭股一度大幅下挫，但不久以后国家对全国发电用煤实施临时价格干预措施，导致平煤天安、西山煤电等股价再次下跌，使煤炭股成为7月份跌幅最大的板块，根据赢富数据统计，全月该板块净流出资金71亿元。

尽管管理层和各大国家级传媒都先后发出了“维稳”的信号，基金和保险资金仍成为7月主要的做空力量，显示机构投资者对后市信心不足。从买入、卖出席位来看，QFII和国内券商自营资金成为主要的买盘。

由于北京奥运会的脚步日益临近，投资者普遍预期会有一波奥运行情。尽管他们的预期落空，管理层确实对市场发出了强烈的“维稳”信号以避免前几个月的大幅下跌。中国证券监督管理委员会召开了多次会议，强调要把“维稳”放到重中之重的位置，证监会主席尚福林表示，2008年下半年要“全力以赴做好维护稳定工作”。同时，新华社、《人民日报》等中国权威媒体也用密集的报道提升市场信心。

然而，维护市场基本稳定的力量很难说是来自这些官方的号召，人们对宏观经济基本面改善的预期才是市场稳定的前提。尽管宏观经济基本面尚未有实质性的改善，高层领导人对重要经济省份的频繁视察却使市场预期宏观紧缩政策可能会有所放松，至于放松到何种程度，也许这并不是最重要的问题。此前受人民币升值、劳动力成本上涨以及防止经济过热的紧缩政策带来的信贷压缩的影响，众多企业举步维艰，甚至在一些沿海地区大量企业外迁或者倒闭。

7月上旬，中国政府高层领导人分别视察一些经济大省，考察当地经济发展面临的困难，随后中央召开了一系列的高层会议研究当前经济面临的问题和解决方案。分析人士普遍认为，中央会放松紧缩的力度，此举将不仅稳定经济，股市也会受益。

7月相对较少的“大小非”解禁数量也是市场稳定的一个重要因素。当月解禁股票市值为455亿元，远低于6月的994亿元和8月的2100亿元。

国际市场的表现，尤其是油价的变化对国内A股市场的影响也是显而易见的。美国股市的剧烈波动，尤其是受次贷危机恶化影响的金融股的表现，往往会带来国内市场的大幅波动。油价的影响则更为明显，国际原油价格从最高的每桶147美元下降到约120美元，极大缓解了投资者对油价高企侵蚀企业利润的担忧，从而稳定了市场。

有趣的是，全景网络的调查显示，在接受访问的3500名投资者中，45%的投资者在7月的收益率超过了20%。这也许可以算作7月平淡股市中的一个亮点。