Liu He: Lihgt at the End of the Tunnel

2008/08/15 13:00:00 US/Central

The phase of low-cost and high-speed growth has passed; adjustments to the economic structure are inevitable.

The global economy will begin to improve after an especially difficult period during the second half of 2008 and the first six months of 2009, says Liu He, deputy director of the Central Financial and Economic Leading Group of the CPC.

“I’m very optimistic about the prospects for China’s economy,” Liu said in an interview with People’s Daily. “It will leap to a new high after it weathers the hard times.”

Liu said that the current situation in the Chinese economy should be considered against the background of the global economy, which is currently going through a period of “stagflation.” Developed countries are seeing sliding growth and rising inflation, while 53 developing countries are suffering from double-digit inflation. Some are even experiencing social unrest. China is clearly doing better. However, the phase of low-cost and high-speed growth has passed and adjustments to the economic structure are inevitable.

Despite comparatively sound growth, inflation is still posing a major challenge to China’s overall economy. But macro-control measures are taking effect: the CPI’s upward trend halted in March 2008.

President Hu Jintao has recently said that “a stable policy must be applied” and “timely micro-adjustment must be conducted.”

Liu says that stabilizing policy means macro-control is already strong enough. Current measures need to be maintained to create a transparent and sound environment in which enterprises can relax and adjust themselves in response to changes in the market. China must also take a discreet and prudent attitude in responding to a rapidly changing international environment.

There are three aspects to micro-adjustment, according to Liu. First, difficulties in the financing of small-and-medium-sized companies should be eased through the guidance of credit policies; second, tax refunds for labor-intensive sectors that are facing the biggest challenges should be adjusted to ensure stable foreign trade; third, price-fluctuations should be countered through increasing supply so that a stable market is guaranteed.

The question is, how does China maintain stable and rapid growth while keeping inflation from rising too fast? According to Liu, micro-control in the second half of 2008 will focus on “reforms of key links in the chain of the socialist market economy under a stable micro-control policy.” One focus of these reforms is the financial system. SMEs have suffered most from the credit crunch; therefore, measures should be taken to promote the development of the bond market. The other focus is reform of the pricing mechanism to make prices better reflect market value.

刘鹤:中国经济完全有能力应对各种挑战

文/薛京晶

2008年上半年，在国内外经济增长趋缓、通胀压力加大的大背景下，北京经济运行基本平稳，保持较快增长。全市实现地区生产总值4972.8亿元，按可比价格计算，比上年同期增长11%，增幅同比回落1.1个百分点；比2008年第1季度回落0.3个百分点。全市完成地方财政收入1070.6亿元，比上年同期增长46.4%，增幅同比提高19.4个百分点，累计增速自2007年8月以来已连续11个月保持30%以上。

北京市统计局日前公布的统计数据显示，中国经济依然向好，但国内外对此也有一些争议，对于2008年下半年及全年经济走势，中央财经领导小组办公室副主任刘鹤认为，2008年经济形势最复杂、挑战性最强，世界经济变化较大，很多情况出乎意料。上半年，中国GDP增长10.4%，从经济增长潜力看，这个速度并不低，与国家宏观调控预期目标也是吻合的。从需求结构看，投资、消费、出口“三驾马车”增长相对均衡，内需对经济增长的贡献率明显高于往年。

刘鹤对此特别强调，要从全球视野认识中国经济。目前，全球经济正经历“滞胀”，发达国家普遍出现经济下滑、通胀率上升，53个发展中国家通胀率达到2位数，一些国家甚至发生社会动乱。横向比较，中国经济发展势头当属最好。历史地看，经济运行本身有周期性和结构性变化特征，低成本、高增长的阶段已过去，经济结构调整是客观大趋势。考虑全球因素，下半年经济将延续上半年增长格局，即出口减速、消费持平、投资略降，总的增速会比2007年低一些，各方预测2008年全年增长在9.5%—10.4%之间。

刘鹤认为，对“稳定政策”的理解是三方面：其一，就中国经济现实表现看，宏观调控政策力度已基本到位，没必要再加大调控力度，而应保持各项宏观政策的稳定，从而创造一个良好、透明的外部环境，使企业按照市场信号主动调整；其二，稳定预期，使全社会预见到环境的特点，使微观主体从容起来，确保“平稳较快”的大势；其三，外部变化如此之大，水到底有多深，需要冷静观察。美、欧、日面临经济困局，发展中国家都急于找对策，在这种情势下，中国要审慎应对，而不是轻易出手。概括讲，即创造环境、稳定预期、静观其变。

关于“适时微调”的政策，刘鹤表示，在这一轮政府的宏观调控中，不同利益主体感受各异，特定的地区、产业、企业和群体面临不同压力，特别是中小企业遇到挑战，应当区别对待，有保有压。微调一是注重解决中小企业融资难问题，通过信贷政策引导，使资金流向有竞争力、充分吸纳就业的中小企业；二是对经营困难的劳动密集型行业，出口退税应适当调整，保持外贸平稳增长；三是适时理顺价格，要根据实际情况择机微调，改变价格扭曲现象，增加供给，抑制需求，保证市场平稳运行。　　

中央提出下半年“要把保持经济平稳较快发展、控制物价过快上涨作为宏观调控的首要任务”，刘鹤对此认为，又好又快发展不能单纯地为了治通胀而弃增长，也不能只要增长而忽视治理通胀。汇率、利率、价格是快变量，劳动力素质变化是慢变量，快和慢变量之间的均衡有一个过程。从这个事实出发，下半年宏观调控重在“控总量、调结构、稳物价、促平衡”，着力点是在稳定宏观政策前提下，推动关键环节的改革，使微观基础更扎实。一是要深化金融改革。信贷政策收紧，被紧掉的往往是中小企业，这反映了国内金融体制相对僵化、融资结构不合理，要推动债券市场健康发展，大企业直接融资多，可为中小企业腾出更多资金空间；二是审慎推进价格改革，宏观矛盾往往源于微观机制改革不到位，这使宏观政策传导不下去，最主要的是价格扭曲。“不存在增长的极限，只存在扭曲的极限”，价格信号扭曲就很难实现又好又快。2008年正值改革开放30年，应推出改革新举措，把微观基础打牢，使宏观政策更有效。

刘鹤最后表示，今后一段时间经济的发展，一是在快速变化的全球背景下，政策实施过程中要处理好保持政策连续性、稳定性与增强针对性、灵活性、预见性的关系；二是在推动发展过程中，处理好改革、发展、稳定的关系，有针对地推动改革，以改革促发展促稳定，把握好改革的时机和力度。世界经济正处于大变革、大调整的新阶段，外部不确定性增加，对中国宏观调控提出了更高要求。2008年下半年到2009年上半年可能是全球经济最困难的时期，但一切都会好起来。要有长远眼光，树立信心，抓住机遇，在调整中加快发展。经济历次调整的经验证明，中国完全有能力应对各种挑战，经济发展前景十分乐观，只要挺过去，中国经济就会跨越到新的高点。



	Article featured in Business Beijing, August 2008 Publication sponsored by Information Office of the Beijing Municipal Government, Beijing Municipal Bureau of Commerce, Development & Reform Commission of Beijing Municipality, China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (Beijing Sub-Council)