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Investors Rocked by Changing Tides

Mainland bourses opened on a sour note in April as shares plunged 4.13 percent, taking the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index to a nearly one-year low of 3,329.16 points. Shares fell across the board, with more than 600 stocks plunging by the daily limit of 10 percent. The crisis of confidence was triggered by a central bank declaration that tight monetary policies would continue. Concerns over first-quarter corporate results and macroeconomic statistics for March were expected to dampen sentiment further. Investor confidence also took a hit as billions of previously locked-in shares began to flood the market.

Still, a survey released by China’s securities regulator found investors by and large remained optimistic, with 60 percent of them expecting stock prices to rise. Sure enough, shares recovered in the rest of the opening week, boosted by financial and energy heavyweights. Metal shares also added to the upsurge.

The gains continued into the second week as the market opened with a 4.45 percent surge led by securities and metal stocks. Most securities shares rose, indicating a renewed confidence in the health of the stock market. But midway through the week, that confidence was badly shaken as the key index plunged 5.5 percent, driven by weak heavyweights. Shares, however, recovered thereafter to end the second week at 3,492.89.  Boosted by the stronger yuan, appreciating beyond 7 yuan to the US dollar for the first time, bank and aviation shares rallied.

The following week turned out to be a nightmare as a key index started out with a massive 5.62-percent dive, tracking the meltdown on Wall Street and regional markets. Virtually every share bled in this bear attack. After a brief rally the next day, because of bargain hunting, shares returned to their free fall for the rest of the week.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announced that economic growth slowed by 1.1 percentage points to 10.6 percent in the first quarter, while the consumer price index remained at a high 8 percent, increasing worries that a slowing economy with high inflationary pressure would invite further tightening measures. The fear turned out to be true as the People’s Bank of China said it would raise the reserve requirement ratio of commercial banks by 50 basis points to a record high of 16 percent, the third such move this year to curb excess liquidity and ease inflation.

Shares continued to shed heavy for the rest of the week, finally closing at 3,094.67 points, coming tantalizingly close to breaching the 3,000 mark. PetroChina broke its initial public offer (IPO) price of 16.70 yuan (US$2.34) per share, dropping to 16.02 yuan (US$2.24), triggering panic selling and adding to the already weak sentiments after five management companies revealed they were cutting stock holdings in the first quarter. For the whole of this week, the index thus lost 11.4 percent, the biggest weekly decline in more than a decade.

If the third week was a disaster, the following week more than made up for it. Boosted by the regulator’s measures to stabilize the market announced over the weekend, the key index rose 6.80 percent the very first day of the week. The surge came after the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) ordered shareholders to sell stocks on the block trading system if they expect to sell a large amount of locked in shares.

After struggling the very next day, shares resumed their upward journey thereafter. On Wednesday, shares rose 4.15 percent on a rally in financial, metal and mining stocks. On Thursday, the key index jumped a whopping 9.29 percent after the overnight announcement of a cut in stamp tax from 0.3 percent to 0.1 percent. Only two stocks fell, while more than 1,000 rose by the 10-percent daily limit as the government’s move was seen as a positive effort to lift the sagging market. But the week closed on a weaker note as stocks eased 0.7 percent, with the euphoria over tax cut fading by Friday.

Shares fell 2.33 percent on the opening day of the last week of April amid heavy selling of blue chips. Weaker corporate earnings were widely believed to have caused the sell-off. Stocks, however, rallied the rest of the week, with shares led by SINOPEC ending sharply higher on the last trading of the month, before going into the May holiday period.

悲喜交加的四月股市

译/程禾

2008年4月的股市开局惨淡，上证综合指数下跌4.13%，跌至近1年来的最低——3329.16点，600多支股票跌停。

第一周    中国央行表示紧缩的货币政策将持续下去、对2008年第1季度公司业绩以及3月宏观经济数据的担忧、数十亿的限售股解禁后大规模进入市场，都对投资者的心理造成了新的冲击，并成为新一轮市场信心危机的主要来源。然而中国证券监督管理机构的一份调查却显示：大部分投资者还是持乐观态度。其中还有60%的被访者认为股价还会上涨。如大家所愿，在第1周接下来的几天里，受金融和能源等权重股的带动，股市稍稍有所恢复，金属板块也有所贡献。

第二周    上周的好消息持续到了本周。由于证券和金属板块的带动，市场开盘上涨4.45%。盘中大多数证券股出现上扬，暗示了投资者对于股票市场健康成长的信心。然而本周刚刚过半，这种信心就遭受到第一轮打击。受权重股疲软的影响，上证综指下跌了5.5%。接下来，市场重新反弹，以3492.89点结束了本周。这得益于人民币对美元的汇率首次突破7元，使得银行及航空股得以重整旗鼓。

第三周   接下来的一周就像是一场恶梦。受华尔街股市以及周边市场疲软的影响，上证综指开盘即下跌5.62%，所有股票几乎无一幸免。除了在本周的第2天，由于抄底行为而出现短暂回调之外，接下来的时间中，市场下跌的趋势几乎没有受到任何阻碍。

中国国家统计局宣布2008年第1季度国民经济增速放缓了1.1个百分点，增幅为10.6%，而消费者价格指数居高不下，高达8%。投资者更加担心面对放缓的经济和严峻的通胀压力，进一步的紧缩政策将会出台。投资者的担心不无道理——不久，央行即宣布将商业银行存款准备金率提高0.5个百分点至16%，这已经是2008年内的第3次准备金率上调。在第3周剩下的时间里，市场表现越发惨淡，最终收于3094.67点，距离3000点大关咫尺之遥。中石油最终跌破了其16.70元的发行价，达到16.02元。这使得由于受到2008年第1季度五家基金管理公司减持股票消息的影响而脆弱的信心再度受到打击，出现了一些恐慌性的抛售行为。本周的上证综指跌掉了11.4%，达到了近10年来的单周跌幅之最。

第四周    如果说第3周的股市如同一场灾难的话，第4周的情况则更像是重生。受监管部门利好消息的影响，开市第1天的上证综指涨幅达到6.8%，这在很大程度上是由于中国证监会发布了大宗上市公司解除限售存量股份转让通过大宗交易系统进行的原因。在第2天小幅调整之后，市场终于恢复了向上的趋势。受金融、金属以及矿业股的带动，第3天的股市上涨4.15%；第4天的涨幅更是达到了9.29%，由于受到当天发布的将股票交易印花税由0.3%下调到0.1%的利好消息刺激，只有2支股票下跌，有超过1000支股票当天出现跌停，因为这一措施被认为是政府的救市之举。在本周最后一个交易日，市场从狂喜中稍稍恢复，以0.7%的小幅下跌结束。

最后一周    在开市的第1天，受蓝筹股抛售的影响，指数下跌2.33%，公司业绩的不尽如人意被认为是导致股票抛售的重要原因。然而接下来的几天，市场又重新反弹，在中石化带动下的众多股票在4月的最后一个交易日表现颇佳。