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March Market Tests Investors' Psychological Limits

The benchmark Shanghai stock index jumped 2.06 percent to 4,438.27 points on the very first trading day of March as investors’ expectations of a stamp tax cut intensified. But apart from that brief spurt and another later in the week, shares generally held to a downward trend for the remainder of the month as stocks declined in other regional bourses amid worries about corporate refinancing plans. The possibility of tighter macro controls also spooked investors.

But week two was even worse: it opened with a 3.59 percent drop in anticipation of higher inflation data for February that may trigger more stringent tightening measures. Inflation data released the next day, at a nearly 12-year high figure of 8.7 percent, proved the fears correct. Stocks continued to drop steadily for the rest of the week, dipping below the 4,000 mark.

Financial and property stocks were the hardest hit as investors sold them for fear that they might end up bearing the brunt of more tightening measures. Agricultural, transportation and logistics, petrochemical and steel stocks also took a hit.

The following week opened on an ominous note as the Shanghai Composite Index tumbled 3.6 percent amid continued worries of a possible interest rate hike to tackle inflation and a US-led recession triggered by the subprime crisis. The poor performance of the regional markets did not help. Hong Kong fell by more than 5 percent, denting the confidence of investors already troubled by the implications of the rescue of investment bank Bear Stearns. The next day, the key index nosedived to an eight-month low, with almost all stocks closing lower. Premier Wen Jiabao’s reiteration of the battle against inflation also added to market worries of more tightening measures.

But shares staged a remarkable recovery in the rest of the week as a result of bargain hunting. Sentiments also improved as regional markets rose after the US Federal Reserve lowered its key lending rate. A temporary suspension of the collection of enterprise income tax on mutual funds boosted the market, too. All five major air carriers rose by the daily limit of 10 percent as the yuan broke a new record against the US dollar.

Shares started the next week with a steep 4.49 percent drop on profit-taking and liquidity concerns. News that the growth enterprise board would be launched soon added to liquidity concerns. Large caps primarily led the decline. Another huge drop, of 5.42 percent, the biggest one-day loss in two months, came later that week as the key index hit 3,411, the lowest in nearly a year. The slide followed overnight losses on Wall Street. News that several shares fell below or near their initial public offering prices further dampened sentiments.

But the week closed with a strong technical rebound of 4.94 percent amid market buzz that the industry’s regulator would cut stamp duties or unveil a timetable for the launch of stock index futures over the weekend. Financial, oil and property shares led the rally.

The last trading day of March, there was a 3 percent decline in stock prices as the anticipated stimulus measures did not come over the weekend as expected. Large caps led the dive, with PetroChina, the biggest index component, falling 3.64 percent. The key index ended March at 3,472.71 points.

Shares continued to fall into April, opening the month with a 4.13 percent plunge after the central bank declared that tight monetary policies would persist this year. Concerns over first-quarter corporate results and macroeconomic statistics for March were expected to dampen sentiments further. Investor confidence also took a hit as billions of previously locked-up shares began to flood the market. The top 20 heavyweights in the Shanghai market fell 3.11 percent on average.

But shares recovered in the rest of the opening week of April, boosted by financial and energy heavyweights. Metal shares also added to the upsurge.

三月股市测试投资者的心理底线

译/程禾

受到投资者对降低股票交易印花税预期增强的影响，2008年3月首个交易日的上证综合指数上涨了2.06%, 达到4438.27点。

第一周   除了在首个交易日和第一周末产生了两个小幅上扬之外，A股市场在3月第1周总体依然呈现出下滑的态势。其中，部分原因是由于受到世界其它股票市场下跌的影响，以及对于一些公司再融资计划和更加从紧的宏观调控政策的担忧。

第二周   本周的情况则更加糟糕。由于担心2月继续上扬的通货膨胀指数会导致更多紧缩政策的出台，在交易日刚开盘，股市就下跌了3.59%。第二天随之公布的2月CPI（消费者价格指数）证实了大家的担忧，其8.7%的涨幅达到了12年来的新高。在第2周剩下的时间里，市场一路下滑，一直跌到了4000点以下。其中，金融和地产股受影响最大，因为投资者担心他们受到更多紧缩政策的影响，纷纷选择抛售。同时，农业、运输、物流、石化以及钢铁行业也不同程度的受到波及。

第三周   由于继续受到对中国央行加息以及美国次贷危机影响的担忧，股市刚开局就下跌了3.6%。地区其它市场表现同样低迷。香港股市下跌了5%，这使得被“美联储决定拯救的世界知名投资银行贝尔斯登”消息搞得人心惶惶的投资者们的信心进一步受挫。第二天，上证综合指数急速下滑，达到8个月以来的新低，几乎所有股票都出现了下滑。中国国务院总理温家宝重申控制通货膨胀的决心更增强了市场对紧缩措施的担忧。然而，在本周接下来的时间里，股市却出现了回暖的势头，原因在于资金的抄底行为。由于受到美联储降低贷款利率的影响，股市情绪也有所好转。暂时停止征收基金公司企业所得税的消息也对市场产生了有利的影响。另外，受到人民币对美元汇率再创新高的影响，5家主要航空公司的股票都出现了涨停。

第四周   受分红和对流动性的担忧，股市在开局直降4.49%。有关创业板将于近期获批的消息加剧了对资金流动性不足的担心。权重股成为领跌力量。而接下来5.42% 的单日下跌幅度更是创下了2个月来的新高，并且带动大盘下滑到近一年以来的最低点——3411点。由美国华尔街传来几支股票跌破或接近跌破发行价的消息构成下跌的重要因素。但是，本周结束时市场却出现了4.49%的技术反弹。这是由于考虑到政府有可能在周末出台降低印花税的措施或者公布股指期货上市时间表。金融、石油和地产股成为主要领涨力量。然而在3月最后一个交易日，股市却下跌了3%，因为预期中的利好消息并没有在上周末出现，权重股领跌。中石油作为沪市最大的权重股，下跌了3.64%。3月股市最终以3472.71点收盘。

进入4月   A 股市场继续了下滑的趋势。受中国央行宣布紧缩货币政策会贯穿全年消息的影响，股市开盘即下跌4.13%。对于第1季度企业表现以及3月宏观经济数据出炉的担心进一步给投资者对于市场的信心造成打击。投资者信心同时还受到10亿股限售股解禁的影响。沪市权重股排名前20位的股票平均下跌达3.11%。接下来的时间情况略有好转，拉动力量来自于金融和能源行业的蓝筹股，金属板块也贡献了一份力量。