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Real Estate 2008 Spring

Immune to Price-Fluctuation: Key Words for Property Selection

Housing prices in China began falling at the end of 2007, but this may be cold comfort to wannabe house buyers, because prices are still too high for ordinary citizens.

Still, property developers say they think prices for real estate will remain fairly stable despite the declines and they may even rebound with summer and the 2008 Olympic Games approaching.

Statistics compiled by the Beijing Municipal Construction Commission indicate that the property market slumped during the first three months of 2008 with a daily average turnover rate of 182 units. Yet, though the overall Beijing real estate market left a few skid marks as it slowed, there were still some hot properties such as America Mount and Star River.

Experts say China's real estate industry may have come to a crossroad with the sales volume of apartments dropping dramatically in major cities such as Beijing and Shanghai. Still, there were few openings for ordinary buyers.

 Sources said real-estate-market trade volume depends on perceptions of potential buyers. Only buildings with strong appeal are surviving as mainstream sellers.

A New Buzz Word has Emerged: Resilience

China's property developers have been offering discounts and other incentives to fight shrinking sales and the credit crunch since the end of 2007. But after four months of declines, Beijing’s real estate market is expected to rebound.

"The housing market in China will warm up in March 2008," said Pan Shiyi, chairman of SOHO China. A pioneer in China's modern property-development market, Pan’s early March prediction raised eyebrows far and wide.

Indeed, more real estate projects were launched in March, and housing prices are still high despite the four-month skid, but Pan believes pent-up demand is building, and this was, in fact, reflected in the market. Da Cheng Times Centre, which was launched in March, has nearly 800 queue-number holders waiting to buy. Other hot selling buildings include America Mount, Star River and Jin Di Beijing. Real estate developers are viewing all this as a sign of thawing in the market.

However, a few standouts do not speak for the whole market: “From our monitoring we can see there are several buildings selling well this March. But we cannot say the whole market is good,” said Deng Xiaohu, director of the Planning Department of the Beijing Huaye Real Estate Company Limited.

Deng said last year’s market slowdown was merely a “self-adjustment.” He said whether a project is a winner or a loser depends on buyer recognition of factors such as a projects’ price-to-performance ratio and the potential for higher housing prices.

 The first three months performance of Beijing’s real estate market proves Deng’s point. Some projects have reported good sales while some have been discounting with little to show for it, especially high-end projects with a price of more than 20,000 yuan per square metre (sq.m), whose sales are almost frozen. Many projects in hot areas sold merely 15 to 20 units in January 2008.

     In comparison, America Mount in the Baiziwan area along the East Fourth Ring Road sold more than 500 units, generating a sales volume of around 710 million yuan (US$99.4 million) in the first quarter of 2008, becoming the best seller in Beijing. Star River saw its sales surpass 400 million yuan (US$56 million) in the first three months of 2008. Gemdale City Crown, near Sihuiqiao Dong, sold 205 units in the same period.

Industry insiders say the polarization in property sales reflects a difference in a given project’s ability to withstand price fluctuations. When sales are stagnant and market anticipation is slight, consumers tend to be extra cautious. They tend to select houses and properties they feel are immune to price fluctuations.

The wait-and-see attitude on Beijing’s property market has cast a shadow on the market; when or if it will heat up is unpredictable.

Dealers also report that potential buyers are taking longer to consider and make their purchases, twice as long, according to industry insiders. Common consumers with little professional knowledge in real estate cannot make a definite judgment on whether the price of a property will fall after they buy it. “People spend an average of one and a half months to make their decision, but now they are taking at least three months,” said Yang Shaofeng, general manager of Conworld, a leading real estate agency.

Experts point out that America Mount is immune to price fluctuations because its surrounding community is maturing, the comprehensive quality of the property is high, the area has a strong potential, but the price is reasonable. Star River, as a representative of high-end properties in Beijing, is highly price-fluctuation resistant and is expected to continue to be so for some time.

Major Criteria of Properties Immune to Price-Fluctuation

Savvy property buyers now urgently want “to borrow a pair of magic eyes, to see through the chaos.” [Lyrics from a well-known Chinese pop song “Flowers in the Fog”] Judging whether a project is economically defensible or not is at the top of any buyer’s list of things to consider in this “off-season.” Careful consideration of a purchase is very much demanded; life savings hang in the balance.

Sadly, there are no cogent criteria that can be used to judge a property’s price resiliency. The best advice today is that hot sellers in a down market appear to be more resilient, yet using sales as a guide has its downside in that it’s a market reflection, not a projection. Strong sales could precede price hikes as well. Therefore, potential buyers could end up paying more by waiting on sales results to make a decision.

Luo Yuan, general manger of Beijing SunRun Real Estate Agencies, believes that comprehensive factors should be used to judge whether a project is immune: “Immunity to price fluctuations is a comprehensive assessment indicator, which cannot be decided only by a set of data, but should include several tiers such as prices, quality, location as well as development potential. If the regional development prospect of the project is not good, say an expressway built along the project, then the price of the building will soon drop.”

Luo’s idea was echoed by Zan Qingwen, sales director of Beijing Oriental Sun City. In the first quarter of 2008, more than 70 units were sold by Oriental Sun City, which is one of the best sellers of suburban buildings. The reason for the good performance in a dismal market is because the low density, green environment, high air quality, and gradually mature utilities in the community. What’s more, the Oriental Sun City Comprehensive Community Hospital is occupies a special niche as the first community for retired senior citizens in China. 

If the overall quality of a building is not good, even if the other factors of it are impressive, the building itself will not be deemed as defensive, said Xiao Zhigang, marketing director, GoldCommon Group. “The building quality is a prerequisite in the discussion of price immunity.

“The ethics of the developer are also important. Now, a lot of projects developed by some brand developers are not defensive because of a lack of ethics,” Xiao said. He asserted that owners’ rights are important, but that they are being catered to mostly by national-level builders. Quality is the primary element of the defensibility of a building; regardless whether other properties are selling well or not.

“Quality is crucial,” Xiao said.

View from Industry Insiders:

High-end projects often feature strong defensibility. According to the distribution of products, high-end projects are positioned at the top of the pyramid and are small in number. With the development of the economy, the rich will grow richer and more numerous and will seek high-end residences; therefore, the high-end real estate products should be the most price-fluctuation resistant.

Guo Ziwei, director, Cheung Kong Real Estate Investment Company, Limited

Rail transportation and regional utilities are the major referential indicators needed to judge whether a project is price-fluctuation immune or not. In the big depression of the Hong Kong real estate market, the projects along the rail transportation network were not affected, enjoying a relatively stable and rational price; when the situation improved, these buildings also enjoyed a sustained and rapid climb. Therefore, the future potential of rail transportation and the quality of neighbouring buildings must be promising.

Zan Qingwen, sales director, Beijing Oriental Sun City

Suburban properties, especially in marginal suburban areas are less defensive. Therefore, generally, buildings suburban properties are not price-fluctuation resistant.                    

Yang Shaofeng, general manager, Beijing Conworld Real Estate Agency

Whether a project is immune to price fluctuations is directly related to the quality of the buyers. The owners of Star River are mainstream successful figures, with much higher financial capacities, abilities and social influence than average buyers. They are the elite of various industries that influence Chinese economic development, and most of them have experience with studying or living abroad. They come from all over China and the majority of them (59 percent) hold Beijing permanent-residence permits, while foreign owners account for 19 percent. Other owners are from southeastern coastal cities and Northeast China.

Wei Fengjun, deputy sales director, Beijing Star River

走进屹立不倒的“抗跌性”楼盘

文/薛京晶

北京楼市经历持续5个月的销售冷清后能否回暖成为购房者和业内普遍关注的话题。但是从目前来看，北京的楼市市场回暖局面还暂未出现，来自北京房地产交易管理网的数据显示，2008年前3个月的日均住宅交易量为182套，暂未出现快速上涨的局面。但值得关注则是，虽然北京的楼市市场整体暂未快速回暖，但以美利山、星河湾为代表的部分楼盘却出现了热销的局面。

专家分析认为，目前，北京楼市销售出现明显的两极分化，房地产市场的自我调控作用明显。在销售惨淡的情况下，购房者买房的态度将越来越谨慎。在此背景下，一个楼盘能否销售出去，则主要通过其被市场的认可度来决定。只有那些“抗跌性”强的楼盘才能成为市场的主流，而“抗跌性”无疑成为2008年北京楼市最具有“眼球效应”的词语。

“抗跌性”楼盘脱颖而出

从2007年11月开始的北京楼市销售冷清状况一直持续到了2008年3月，在经历长达4个月的市场惨淡后，开发商们将北京楼市的回暖寄希望于2008年的3月。3月初，SOHO中国董事长潘石屹迫不及待的表示，北京楼市的春天将在3月来临。潘石屹的判断在一定程度上给众多京城开发商带来楼市回暖期盼的信心。此后，关于北京楼市3月回暖的说辞此起彼伏。

相信楼市回暖的开发商普遍认为，随着3月新入市的地产项目数量的增加，尤其是购房者经过4个月左右的观望后发现，楼市并没有出现实质性的价格变化，观望情绪释放完毕。随着大量新项目底价入市的带动和促进，购房者的购买情绪再次高涨，抑制了近半年的购买需求，随着新开盘项目合理制定的销售价格开始释放。

事实上，北京3月的楼市也出现了个别楼盘热销的局面。3月开盘销售的大成时代中心，出现了近800多组客群排号的局面。此外，包括美利山、金地名京、星河湾等楼盘在3月也持续热销。北京楼市个盘的热销被回暖声放大。在楼市整体不销售不景气的客观情况下，开发商们将少数楼盘的热销认为是楼市回暖的开始。

根据调查采访的数据分析显示，从目前北京市场的整体表现来看，楼市整体回暖还有些牵强。北京华业地产企划总监邓小虎一直在关注北京楼市的销售情况。“从我们的监控数据来看，3月份北京多个楼盘出现热销的局面。个案楼盘的热销和楼市整体回暖并没有最为直接的关联。”邓小虎分析指出，个别楼盘热销并不能代表市场回暖。

邓小虎认为，北京楼市在2007年底出现的销售放缓，在一定程度上是北京房地产市场的内部自我调整。在楼盘销售不景气的情况下，单个楼盘的销售量取决于该楼盘能否被市场和购房者接受。也就是说市场自我调控的手目前正在对北京楼市进行调整，一些产品性价比高、区域升值潜力大的楼盘得到市场的认可，其产品就会脱颖而出。反之，不具有升值潜力的产品出现滞销。

2008年前3个月的北京楼市表现也证明了邓小虎的观点。据了解，前3个月北京住宅销售市场出现了两极分化，以美利山、华业玫瑰郡等为代表的产品持续热销，成为2008年北京楼市淡季热销的项目，而部分不具有性价比和投资价值的项目则频繁打折销售，但销售情况仍旧不好，尤其是售价超过20000元/平米以上的住宅基本滞销。朝青区域、城四区区域、亚要区域等热销区域的多数住宅产品出现滞销，这些区域内的多数楼盘在2008年1季度的月销售量在15—20套左右。

“抗跌性”成为考虑的首个要素

销售数据是最有说服力的。北京房地产交易的数据显示，位于东四环沿线百子湾的美利山在2008年1月销售了394套，销售金额约为5.1亿元；2月销售了52套，销售金额约为0.7亿元；3月销售了102套，销售金额约为1.3亿元。2008年1季度该项目总共销售了548套，销售额为7.1亿元，月平均销售量为182套，成为2008年1季度销售量最大的楼盘。此外，位于朝青板块的星河湾，2008年前3个月销售了近40套，其中前2个月的销售额约为4亿元。位于四惠桥东的金地名京在2008年1季度销售了205套，销售金额约为5.2亿元。

多数业内专家表示，目前市场出现的这种销售此消彼涨的局面，归根结底就是各个项目之间“抗跌性”的对比。在市场销售平淡的时候，尤其是市场预期极度不好的前提下，购房者买房子的时候，肯定是要经过仔细斟酌的。购房者对房子的选择将更谨慎，那些能够被购房者所认可的房子就是“抗跌性”强的房子。

美利山项目相关负责人表示，北京楼市的观望导致市场不明朗期延长，至于楼市何时回暖则更难判断。但自主需求还是存在的，这就需要全北京数百个项目来争取数量并不是很多的自主性购买。“如何能够得到这些自住性购买者的认可，除了该项目所在的区域位置和购买生活半径接近外，更主要的则是这个项目是否具有“抗跌性”。该负责人表示，购房者之所以观望不出手购买，是因为他们对一些楼盘能否具有“抗跌性”无从判断，怕购买后房价果真下降。

在北京的几个楼盘销售现场，购房者最为关注的同样是其所购买的楼盘日后是否会下跌。“2008年3月的北京楼市销售处热闹起来，看房的人越来越多，但这些看房人第一次看完后，很少有就马上下定购买。”北京欣原业地产机构总经理罗园说，购房者从开始看楼盘到最后买房的周期越来越长。主要是购房者受到北京楼市整体大环境的影响，专业知识不是很强，短期内无从对其选择的楼盘能否抗跌做出判断。北京联达四方房地产经纪公司总经理杨少锋则表示，2008年购房者的购买选择判断周期要比2007年至少多2倍。按其说法，2007年北京购房者从看房到选择购买的周期平均为1.5个月左右，而现在则至少要3个月以上。

对2008年1季度热销的几个项目进行现场采访时发现，购房者在购买房子的的时候，一般要经过至少3个以上项目的考察。“我在购买美利山之前，沿着东四环沿线看了4个楼盘，经过详细的对比之后，我才决定购买美利山的项目。”一位购房者在美利山售楼现场表示，他现在买房子主要关注的是购买后的房价是否会下跌。目前，很多项目都打折促销，提前买房就吃亏了。该区域其它在售楼盘均没有出现打折销售的情况，说明这个区域及美利山项目具有很强的“抗跌性”。

楼市出现“抗跌性对战”

同样，一位购买华业玫瑰郡的购房者接受记者采访时表示，他购买华业玫瑰郡也是经过了深思熟虑。“我购买房子是自住需求，即使是自住需求我也不希望自己的买的房子日后落价。”该购房者表示，在购买华业玫瑰郡之前，他已经沿在朝青板块看了3个楼盘。最后决定购买华业玫瑰郡是完全对比的结果。李文杰将该购房者的比较称作“楼盘抗跌性对战”。

李文杰的观点认为，2008年北京住宅市场将出现一种优胜劣汰的局面，即使北京住宅出现价格下跌，仍会有一些区域价值高，地段位置好的产品保持一定的上涨幅度。这就要求目前在售的住宅具有非常强烈的“抗跌性”，今后楼盘的“抗跌性”将成为购房者考虑的首个要素。“香港楼市出现下跌的时候，轨道交通及区域配套好的产品仍旧上涨，对于北京而言是同样的。”楼盘的销售数据就是其“抗跌性”的比率，排除经过长时间积累客群的新开盘项目外，那些2008年前3个月一直热销的项目其“抗跌性”比率一般都在90%以上。不过有专家则认为，一个楼盘“抗跌性”的多少需要根据选择的参照物来决定，需要结合销售数量和销售总价。如果仅仅按照销售数量来计算的话，按照2007年平均一个楼盘月销售量70套左右计算的话，金地名京的“抗跌性”则可能为100%，美利山的“抗跌性”则要超过100%。

该专家针对目前北京销售较好的几个项目分析指出，美利山之所以能够具有一定的“抗跌性”，是因为这个社区周边配套日趋成熟，产品品质高且价格适中，尤其是所在区域具有很强的成长性。华业玫瑰郡则是有4个方面的原因：首先是品牌开发商的产品；其次具有便捷的交通；第三是距离国贸很近；最后还必须具有一定的升值潜力。此外，作为北京高品质住宅的代表，星河湾的“抗跌性”最强，尤其是成熟社区的高端产品，其品质可以经受住时间考验。

“2008年1季度，这些‘抗跌性’强的楼盘在实现了交易和价格上涨的局面，如果北京楼市整体回暖，首先价格上涨的也应该是这些楼盘。”有专家分析指出，这就好比目前的股票市场，大盘不好的情况仍旧上涨的股票，如果在大盘上涨的时候，肯定是会涨停的。同样对于楼盘也如此。“只有‘抗跌性’强的楼盘才具有购买价值。”星河湾营销副总监韦凤君这样表示，她认为对“抗跌性”的判断包括多个方面，比如开发商的品质，一般品牌开发商都具有一定的保证，这主要包括上市地产公司及开发了大量项目的公司。此外，项目所在的区域地段也是一方面，这主要根据区域地段的升值潜力来判断，依据则是区域的将来交通、生活及商业配套等方面的规划成熟度。最后则是产品的品质，高品质的住宅和成熟高档社区一般都具有很强烈的增值保值能力。

“抗跌性”楼盘的主要标准

楼盘的“抗跌性”成为2008年北京楼市的标志性的词语，同样也成为购房者、开发商及媒体提及最多的词语。显然，在目前市场整体销售不景气的情况下，购买一套具有“抗跌性”的楼盘不容易。购房者现在迫切想“借我借我一双慧眼吧 ，让我把这纷扰看得清清楚楚明明白白真真切切。”如何判断一个楼盘具有“抗跌性”则成为淡季购房者首要考虑的问题，而且还需要考虑清楚，否则就有可能将其一生积攒的资金附水东流。

“抗跌性”是综合性价比

目前，最为直观的判断就是，淡季热销的项目肯定是具有“抗跌性”的，根据这个标准来判断比较直观。虽然楼盘的“抗跌性”在一定程度上成为该项目能够热销的标准，但目前还暂未有一个比较完整的楼盘“抗跌性”标准。销售量是一个项目“抗跌性”最为恰当的表达，但在一定程度上，通过销售数据来反应楼盘的“抗跌性”有些滞后，因为通过销售数据来证明一个项目的“抗跌性”是属于事后推理。开发商同样也会根据其销售量的增加，会缓慢提高产品的销售价格，因此通过事后的销售数据来判断一个楼盘的“抗跌性”，后期购买者会因此增加购买成本。

北京欣原业地产机构总经理罗园认为，住宅是一种不动产产品，其产品的属性和其他商品有所不同，因此住宅的“抗跌性”要受到其不动产属性的影响。罗园则认为，判断一个楼盘是否具有“抗跌性”应该是一个综合性的要素，同时要根据其产品所在的区域、产品类型、开发商品牌及品德进行综合测评。“一个楼盘的‘抗跌性’是一个综合性的评价指标，不能根据一个数据就可以来断定其是否具有‘抗跌性’。”

罗园举例指出，目前通州平均房价应该在8000元/平米左右，如果有个别项目销售价格为7500元/平米，相比整个区域的均价还要低，是不是购买这个房子就能保证其“抗跌性”了，那显然是不可能。“如果这个项目区域发展前景不好，比如有可能在其旁边修快速路，楼房就会马上落价。”因此，罗园表示，一个楼盘的“抗跌性”是个综合性价比，不能根据简单的几个要素要进行判断。这个综合性价比中设计的要素应该包括：房价多少、品质如何、区域位置及发展潜力等几个方面。

品质是“抗跌性”讨论的前提

很多购房者一致认为，讨论楼盘“抗跌性”的前提是高品质的住宅。如果一个楼盘的整体品质不好，即使其他方面的要素凸现，其本身也不具有“抗跌性”。“楼盘的品质是‘抗跌性’讨论的前提条件。”永同昌集团营销总监肖志刚这样表示。

肖志刚的观点明确表示，“抗跌性”是需要有产品品质来作为保证的，没有好的品质的楼盘是谈不上“抗跌性”的。对于楼盘而言，保证其品质就是保证这个楼盘具有了“抗跌性”的前提。“开发商的品德很重要，现在有好多品牌开发商做出来的产品也不具有‘抗跌性’，因为品牌开发商品德不见得好。”肖志刚分析指出，2007年北京业主维权的楼盘多数为全国性的品牌开发商。楼盘的品质是其“抗跌性”的首要因素，不论是2007年的热销市场，还是2008年的惨淡市场，楼盘的品质是至关重要，如果抛开楼盘的品质说“抗跌性”是站不住脚的。“‘抗跌性’讨论的前提是楼盘自身的品质必须过关。”肖志刚这样表示。

事实也证明了肖志刚的观点及判断，2008年前3个月热销的楼盘全部为高品质住宅，星河湾、华业玫瑰郡、东方太阳城、金地名京等项目都是高品质楼盘 。“抛开品质讨论楼盘的“抗跌性”是不现实的。” 肖志刚的观点得到了北京东方太阳城销售总监昝庆文的认同。东方太阳城在2008年1季度销售了70多套，是郊区销售好的楼盘之一，昝庆文举例说，比如东方太阳城之所以能够具有一定的“抗跌性”，是因为这个社区密度低，绿化环境、空气质量优异，配套日趋成熟，并且是中国首个老年退休社区，特别值得一提的是目前已经投入使用的东方太阳城综合性社区医院正逐步被广大业主认可，其他的社区配套也能够实现内部循环。这些都是这个项目良好品质的表现。

观点：

高端产品抗跌性强。按照产品的分布来看，高端产品属于金字塔顶尖的部分，这部分产品数量少。随着经济的发展，具备一定经济实力的人越来越多，他们同样需要高端的居住产品，因此高端地产产品应该是最具有抗跌性。

   ——长江实业地产投资有限公司董事长郭子威

轨道交通及区域配套是一个项目是否具有抗跌性的主要参考指标。香港楼市大跌的时候，轨道交通的楼盘都没有发生变化，保持在一个比较合适价位，当随着楼盘缓暖的时候，这些楼盘同样会出现一个持续快速上升的局面。由此来看，轨道交通及环线的楼盘将来潜力肯定不错。

 ——北京东方太阳城销售总监昝庆文

郊区产品尤其是边缘郊区的住宅产品的抗跌性就差一些。深圳出现了6.5折销售的楼盘就位于郊区。郊区因其交通及生活配套的不完善，在短期内是很难实现其优质居住环境的。因此从长远来看，郊区楼盘抗跌性是最不强的。尤其是随着限价房等保障性住房的快速入市，单价七八千左右的的远郊楼盘滞销的风险最大，这次北京楼市销售惨淡，受到影响最大的应该是燕郊的楼盘，如果北京楼市持续半年销售惨淡，最先拖垮的应该是燕郊的楼市，因此整体来看，远郊区的楼盘不具有抗跌性，当然东方太阳城例外，因为该项目一方面是老年社区，居住人群比较特殊，此外，该项目自身配套已经能够很好的满足其生活需求。

 ——北京联达四方房地产经纪公司总经理杨少锋

一个楼盘是否抗跌，与购房者的素质也有直接关系。星河湾的业主为社会成功人士，财力、能力以及社会影响力都远远高出平均值，他们是所处行业的权威和意见领袖，可以用“精英阶层”概括。作为中国经济发展的各行业精英，他们在社会中具有很强的影响力，包括跨国企业高层、影响国际体坛的冠军、为中国电影事业做出贡献的演艺名人、在书画界举足轻重、造诣深厚的名士、还有推动中国经济发展的大型企业的领导。他们来自全国各地，大部分有国外留学和生活的经历，其中以拥有北京户籍的客户居多，占总人数的59%，外籍客户占19%，其他客户来自东南沿海城市和东北部地区。

——北京星河湾营销副总监韦凤君

Five aspects of the “buildings immune to price fluctuation” phenomenon

抗跌因素：

Rarity

While some real estate developers are resorting to discounting to cope with misjudging the markets, many others are focusing on rare large-sized apartments as well as relatively rare high-end, low-density properties that are attractive to some niche buyers.

Branding

Branding refers to the quality of the national real estate developers who have “Buildings immune to price fluctuation” projects. The prices of the buildings are one of the most important elements to measure whether the buildings are immune to price fluctuation. 

Price-to-Performance Ratio

Location, community environment, service facilities, transportation and management service are comprehensive elements that determine a building’s quality and value. The project’s price and its performance prove its ability to withstand price fluctuations.

Potential for Increase

A building project’s revaluation depends on its future development potential. Newly built shopping malls, subways and community facilities are elements that add to a property’s value.

Real Estate Management Service

Real estate management services are crucial to a project’s success. Whether a property has community facilities or a good surrounding environment, good management services result in the perception that a property is a comfortable and harmonious place to live.

产品稀缺性

面对目前的楼市行情，因对当前利益的获取或对后市把握不准而紧急“跳水”的开发商并不在少数。但在知名大户型楼盘开发商看来，大户型的稀缺价值已然凸显。此外，还有就是高段低密度产品也是稀缺性产品，这些产品的“抗跌性”相对要强一些。

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