February Market: Keep Striving Despite Hard Times

Mainland stocks opened down in February, with nervous investors dumping them because of uncertainties during the Lunar New Year holiday, when Chinese mainland bourses were closed. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index (SCI) dropped 62.63 points, or 1.43 percent, to 4,320.77, the lowest closing in six months, on the very first day of trading as the worst snowstorms in five decades in southern and eastern China also cast a long shadow on the market.

Stocks displayed a sudden bullish spurt the following week, rising sharply by 8.13 percent on the first trading day following rallies in other markets in the region and news that the weather might improve. A decision by policy-makers to allow two new stock funds, ending a five-month freeze on new funds, also raised hopes of the government allowing more liquidity in the market. Their launch had been suspended last year in view of the market surge.

But the index slid 1.55 percent the very next day, the last day of the Year of the Pig and the last trading day before the Lunar New Year recess, as one billion PetroChina shares and those of six others including Industrial Bank Company Limited hit the market ending the lock-up period, drawing in substantial capital. PetroChina, which accounts for about 25 percent of the Shanghai index, fell by 6.37 percent.

When the market reopened on February 13, shares continued to reflect the shaky outlook as the SCI dropped 2.37 percent taking a cue from the weak performance of global markets. Insurers led the slump as investors anticipated heavy losses as a result of the claims in regions affected by the blizzards and new macro controls expected the following week. But electricity equipment suppliers got a boost from demand triggered by post-storm reconstruction.

The following week saw stocks rising in the first half before sliding in the last few days. The steady increase of the first two days was caused largely by expectations of new capital as nine mutual fund companies got the go-ahead to offer wealth management services to institutional investors. But investor enthusiasm was tempered by concerns over inflation on news that producer price index had risen by 6.1 percent. The index, however, held its own, rising 2.1 percent, even after the announcement that the consumer price index rose 7.1 percent year-on-year in January, an 11-year-high. Analysts said the CPI figure was within expectations and had, in fact, clarified certain policy uncertainties.

Shares began to drop thereafter, falling on all three days in the rest of the week. Talk of a 40 billion yuan secondary offering by Pudong Development Bank triggered liquidity concerns and dampened sentiments. Shares finally closed the week lower, again over liquidity concerns, this time regarding the initial public offering of China Railway Construction Corporation (CRCC) and declines on Wall Street. The SCI closed the week at 4, 370.29, down 156.89 points, or 3.47 percent.

The market began the next week by shedding 4.07 percent, amid market talk of refinancing by China Unicom, hitting a seven-month low. But the index edged up in the next two days as regulators called for more cautious refinancing moves, easing liquidity concerns, with banks and large-caps leading the rally. The key index finished the month at 4348.54, rising 1.14 percent on the last day of February.

The market jumped 2.06 percent on the very first trading day of March as investor expectations of a stamp tax cut intensified. The agenda of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), which opened the same day, was rumoured to include the proposal. Market maintained a downward trend for the remainder of the week as a result of stock declines in other regional bourses and persistent worries about corporate refinancing plans and tighter macro controls.

2008年2月股市：在低迷中前行

中国内地股市2008年2月低迷开局，一部分原因是由于广大投资者担心即将到来的春节假期闭市期间会出现一些不可预知的情况。而袭击中国东部和南部地区的雪灾也为股市蒙上了一层阴影。2月的第一个交易日，上证综合指数下跌了62.63点（跌幅1。43%），收于4320.77点，创六个月以来的新低。

第一周     股市却出现了比较强劲的反弹，在第一个交易日就上涨了8.13%。这得益于周边地区其他股票市场的良好表现以及天气即将转好的消息。另外，决策部门终于结束了长达五个月之久的新基金审批冻结，允许两支股票型基金开放。这增强了对于政府允许更多流动性进入市场的期望。由于担心市场过热，政府在去年已经停止了对新基金的审批。

然而好景不长，第二天市场就出现了1.55% 的下滑。在这个2007年的最后一个交易日，受到10亿股中石油限售股以及包括兴业银行在内的其他六支股票限售股的上市，吸引了大量资金入市。占上证综指权重25%的中石油一支股票就下跌了6.37%。

第二周    上证综指继续了节前的走势，下跌2.37%。这反映了市场对于整个国际市场疲软表现的担忧。同时投资者们还担心将在下周公布的一月份通货膨胀数字会导致政府采取进一步的宏观紧缩措施。保险行业股成为带动市场下跌的主要因素，这是由于投资者们担心雪灾造成的赔偿要求会给保险业带来巨大负担。然而电力设备供应类的股票却因为雪灾后急需的重建工作而得以上扬。

第三周     股市先涨后跌。前两天的稳步上扬大部分原因在于随着九家基金管理公司获准为机构投资者提供资金管理服务，市场将会有新的资金注入的预期增强。然而投资者的热情被随之而来的高达6。1%的工业品出厂价格指数。然而即使在一月份消费者物价指数涨幅高达7.1%，创11年来之最的消息公布后，上证指数仍然保持了上升的势头，上涨2.1%。分析师认为这是由于消费者物价指数的大涨早已在意料范围之内，并在实际上消除了政策的不确定性。

然而此后形势便出现逆转，本周后三天一直以下跌为主。浦东发展银行400亿元的增发传闻引发了对流动性的担心，市场情绪受到影响。最终本周股市暗淡收场，原因仍然是对于流动性的担忧，只不过这次是受到中国铁路建设集团新股上市以及华尔街股市下跌的影响。上证综指下跌156.89点，收于4370.29点，跌幅为3。47%。

最后一周     受到中国联通再融资消息的影响，股市第一天就下跌了4。07%，创下七个月以来的新低。然而由于政府稍后呼吁再融资应谨慎进行，缓解了市场对于流动性的担忧，股指开始在接下来的两天小幅上扬，银行及其他权重股成为带动大盘上升的主力。关于下调股票交易印花税的传闻也对市场情绪带来积极影响。2月最后一个交易日大盘上涨了1.14%，收于4348.54点。

随着对下调印花税预期的进一步增强，3月第一天股市上扬2.06%。有传言说在同一天召开的政协会议提案中将包含此项建议。然而受到周围地区股票市场的影响，以及对几家大型公司再融资计划以及进一步宏观紧缩政策的担忧，市场在三月第一周一直保持了下跌的态势。