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How the Olympics are Influencing the Commercial Property Market

While the hotel, serviced apartment, and tourism sectors are expecting direct short-term benefits from Beijing’s hosting of the 2008 Olympic Games, office markets are experiencing little direct effect, according to Sunny Zhang, senior manager with Research, Cushman & Wakefield.

Both, however, will benefit from the major, fundamental improvements in public transportation, telecommunications infrastructure, and the environment. The value to the commercial property market of the Olympics is largely indirect and is measured over a long time frame, said Zhang.

The construction and development of Beijing’s urban infrastructure including airports, new roads, metro lines and telecommunication systems and the like will certainly help to attract office occupiers to Beijing.

Currently, Beijing is spending heavily on infrastructure as part of its overall push for modernization and in preparation for the Games. Beijing’s metro system will stretch to 198 kilometres (km) in total length, operating seven subway lines by the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games, and will expand to 561 km by 2020, when it will become the longest subway system in the world.

Office Market

With significant new levels of office construction completed on schedule, the market may experience some negative effects felt by some previous hosting cities such as Barcelona, with increased vacancies and falling rentals.

According to statistics by Cushman & Wakefield, 28 percent of the new Grade A office supply scheduled in 2007 was delayed to the next year, which would lead to a peak of 1.5 million sq.m in 2008. Vacancies are likely to increase and rental rates are expected to slightly decline in the light of new completions coming onto market.

However, experience suggests that new supply may also be partly delayed for occupation due to weather, construction progress, ownership, financing, developer issues, and other factors. In addition, it is reported that the approval for office decoration is most likely to be suspended by the Beijing Fire Protection Bureau from May to August. If so, many tenants are expected to carry out their relocation plans ahead of schedule or put them off until after the Games.

However, backed by Beijing’s strong economy, the demand for office space has been high for the past several years, especially in 2007. It will continue to grow in 2008. With anticipated demand accumulating because of a slowdown in activity during the Olympics (such as possible long holidays during the Games) as well as postponed new supply, it is possible that rental rates for the Beijing office market will increase in the last quarter of 2008.     

Retail Market

As with the office market, the Beijing retail market will also benefit from the Olympics and improvements to the urban infrastructure. Additionally, the Olympics is acting as a catalyst for a short-term boost in retail spending with the pattern changes (e.g. souvenirs) resulting from increased domestic and international tourism.

Centrally located retail projects are expected to become more and more popular in line with this related retail boost, as they are much more accessible and convenient in central locations for visitors from public transport nodes. It is estimated that the new retail supply in 2008 will break records as a result of the postponed schedules with 1.9 million sq.m of retail space, making the total supply in 2008 about 4.28 million sq.m. Downward pressures will be witnessed on effective rentals for the retail market in the foreseeable future.

“Overall, Beijing’s commercial real estate market is expected to be stable through the Olympics, because of healthy demand, part of which will be from media, advertising, athletic sports and Olympic licensing and merchandising industries directly driven by the Olympics,” said Zhang.

However, most demand is not directly Olympics driven, but on the back of Beijing’s strong economic growth, the renminbi currency’s continued appreciation and the step-by-step openings brought by China’s membership in the World Trade Organization. In brief, while the direct benefit of the Olympics will be small, it is forecasted to stimulate further demand as part of the opening of the economy, said Zhang.

2008年奥运会益于北京商业地产市场运行稳中有进

2008年奥运会的临近为北京的房地产市场带来了很多直接或间接地影响，其所带动的因城市发展而产生的间接影响在很大程度上都有深远意义。与酒店、服务式公寓及旅游业等在短期内能直接受益的领域相比，写字楼市场所受到的影响不会那样直接。但城市交通条件的改善、环境质量的提升等多种因素都将同时对商业地产市场的发展产生潜移默化的影响。所有这些发展，例如北京首都国际机场的扩建、公路的新建和改造、地铁以及通讯系统的建设等都会成为吸引更多企业进驻北京的有利条件。为了筹备即将到来的2008年奥运会，北京正在加大资金投入的力度来改善基础设施。

在2008年奥运会开幕前，北京将有8条地铁路线投入运营，通车总里程达到200公里。到2012年，北京市将基本完成中心城线网建设，累计轨道交通运营里程将达到440公里。

写字楼市场

随着大量优质写字楼按原定计划先后入市，整个市场或将受到一定程度的消极影响，比如作为1992年第25届奥运会主办城市的西班牙巴塞罗那，随着奥运筹办而来的就是逐步上涨的空置率和下跌的租金。

与往年一样，原定上一年入住的项目，因为融资、工程进度等原因，会有一部分推迟入市。高纬环球研究部的统计数据显示，在原定于2007年入市的甲级写字楼项目中，占总数28%的新增供应量将入住日期推迟到了奥运年，使2008年甲级写字楼新增供应量有望超过150万平方米，达到历史新高。由此看来，如果这些新项目都能按原计划于2008年内入住，整个市场空置率预期将随之上升，预计会达到17%左右。租金水平也会伴随着越来越多的新增供应量入市而有所下滑。根据以往的经验，部分在建项目也有可能会因为天气、工程进度、产权、融资以及开发商方面的种种问题而推迟入市时间。

作为中国的首都以及自身独特的吸引力，北京受世界瞩目。同时，伴随着迅猛发展的经济，对写字楼市场的需求在近几年一直相对旺盛，2007年尤为突出，而且这种趋势在2008年还将持续。一旦奥运会期间一些关于装修、新项目入驻等相关的限制、规定出台，以及公司搬迁等活动的限制，甚至于目前一些报道中猜测的关于奥运会期间会有很多公司或单位放假等，都会对房地产的需求造成影响，再加上部分新项目的延期入住，积蓄已久的大需求量有可能集中在奥运会后出现，这将会导致北京写字楼市场在2008年第四季度的租金攀升。

另外，根据有关报道，北京市消防局很有可能将在2008年5月至8月这段时间内暂停对写字楼装修申请的批复。如果这个规定出台，很多租户应该会考虑将自己的选址计划提前或者推迟至奥运结束。

商铺市场

同写字楼市场一样，北京商铺市场的发展同样会得益于奥运会带来的城市基础设施建设的改善和提高。此外，奥运会还会成为商品零售额在短期内迅猛增加的催化剂。届时，慕名而来的大批境内外游客不仅引发了“旅游市场的春天”，还将在一定程度上促进零售市场消费形态及模式的转变（例如：购买纪念品）。伴随着相关零售业的蓬勃发展，城市中心地段的商铺项目将越来越受欢迎和瞩目。因为对于绝大多数旅游者来说，通过公共交通工具直接到达中心商业地段要比自驾车到达位于郊区的商业区方便很多。高纬环球研究部的统计数据显示，原计划于2007年开业但因故推迟至2008年的新增商铺面积就高达190万平方米，这将意味着2008年北京商铺新增的供应量将再次超过历史纪录，达到约500万平方米。北京商铺市场平均有效净租金将面临小幅下滑的风险。

总结

纵观北京商业地产市场，2008年奥运会正直接驱动着来自媒体、广告、体育用品、奥运会特许经营商品等领域的良性需求，预期商业地产市场在奥运会期间平稳运行。

然而，北京商业地产市场中大部分的需求并非直接来源于奥运会，真正的源动力在于北京经济的飞速发展、人民币的不断升值以及中国加入世界贸易组织后的逐步开放等。简言之，奥运会对北京商业地产市场的直接影响不会非常明显，但由此产生的深远影响必将有力地促进北京逐步开放的经济发展。