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Inflation Requires Comprehensive Policies

Measures to curb the quickly climbing consumer price index in China should not be limited to monetary policies, but must rely upon comprehensive tools such as fiscal policies, price-decision mechanism reforms and industrial policy adjustments, said Qing Yi, director of the Economic Observer Research Institute in an interview with the China National Radio on February 20, 2008.

Qing said current price hikes are not caused by excessive liquidity only; inadequate supplies in certain sectors of the economy are also involved. Therefore, aside from tightening measures in monetary policies, fiscal policies should be employed to increase supply.

He said excessive liquidity exists because of excessively large deposits and foreign exchanges reserves. However, excessive liquidity in the market is being addressed via interest-rate hikes, an increase in deposit reserves of commercial banks and with the issuance of special treasury bonds. “Yet, prices still keep rising,” said Qing, “and there is an apparent shortage in supply in the sectors that are experiencing the steepest price rise curves.”

After record-breaking CPI increases (consumer price index) in 2007, the figure for January 2008, again, was reported at a breath taking 7.1 percent year-on-year increase. This has heightened concern about possible entrenched inflation and speculation about whether additional tightening measures in monetary policy might be on the way.

A year-on-year of growth of 7.1 percent may be dangerous, said Qing, but there are some factors to consider, including the Spring Festival holiday and the unprecedented snow storms that created havoc in most of China’s southern regions. These resulted in price increases, said Qing.

To increase market supply, Qing said, China must “boost investment.”

Today’s bank deposits should be converted to investments and increased supply, Qing said. If supply is not increased via investment, when the excessive existing bank deposits are freed to the market, the insufficient supply will still exist along with inflationary pressures induced by insufficient supply.

In a research report issued by Bank of China in February, a “moderately loose” fiscal policy is also suggested, in addition to perhaps one or two more interest-rates hikes to stem inflation. Tax reduction, treasury-bond issuances and an increase in investment in infrastructure are recommended as the main content of the “moderately loose” fiscal policy. 

The country’s stable fiscal policy is designed to keep the economy from declining in response to a weakened US economy. This will also help to create and retain jobs to ensure the livelihoods of the common people; to improve environmental protection by providing enough fiscal support; and to ensure that government-sponsored projects under construction can be completed.  

清议：混合政策是抑制通货膨胀的必要手段

文/刘声

当很多人正在讨论超过6％的CPI（居民消费价格指数）涨幅究竟算不算是通胀的时候，清议已经在考虑究竟应当采用什么政策手段才能从根本上抑制物价过快上涨。作为一位资深的财经专家，清议始终坚持不能仅仅依赖货币政策解决中国面临的通胀问题。在他看来，混合政策才是走出通胀怪圈的最佳手段。

从2007年1月开始，CPI同比2006年增长已达2.2％，其后更出现了直线上升的趋势。到2007年11月，CPI同比2006年增长高达6.9％，升至自1996年底以来的最高点。2007年全年CPI上涨幅度为4.8％，涨幅比2006年高出3.3％，也创下了近十年来的CPI涨幅新高。中国国家统计局发布的数据显示，经过2007年12月的短暂回落后，刚刚进入2008年1月，CPI就猛增到7.1％，创下了1997年以来的月度新高。而到了2月，CPI的涨幅更是跃升至8.7%，比1月上涨2.6%。

针对这种状况，清议认为，2007年CPI走势已经呈现出前低后高的状态，尽管2007年12月一度有所回落，但是那种状况并非趋势性变化。到2008年1月，CPI涨幅较2007年最后一个月的环比增幅已达1％。从2007年延续下来的走势观察，2008年的上涨幅度可以说是预料之中的变化。而且，中国国务院总理温家宝在2008年《政府工作报告中》提出将物价涨幅控制在4.8%左右。

走出通胀的关键是不能继续强调货币政策的作用，而是应当考虑运用混合政策手段解决问题。比如货币政策与财政政策相结合以及价格改革、产业政策调整等多种多样的方法。

这一轮的通胀并非短期内就能改善的“货币主义”现象。按照芝加哥学派代表人物弗里德曼的货币主义观点，通胀无论发生于何时何地都是一个货币问题。对此，清议认为，实事求是地分析中国目前的经济状况会发现，虽然通胀从表面上看是由个人储蓄和外汇储备所引发的流动性过剩而导致的，但是在央行已经通过调整存款准备金利率、发行央行票据等手段采取了十分严厉的紧缩政策的情况下，这种流动性过剩非但没有被吸收到央行，反而引发了愈演愈烈的通胀。鉴于这种状况，只能说除此之外另有原因。如果深入分析观察会进一步发现，所有价格上涨的领域都出现了供不应求或者短缺的现象，而且越是短缺严重的领域，价格上涨的幅度也越大，这就不完全是货币层面的问题了。

清议认为，既然不仅仅是货币问题，那么要走出这一轮通胀也不能只是靠单一的货币政策解决问题。以开始于80年代，一直延续至1995年才结束的那一轮通胀为例，改革开放之初，搞活农村经济成效显著，农产品价格随之上涨，而几乎在同一时段还进行了提升城市人均工资水平的工资制度改革，加上出口当时也有一定的增长，这一切导致需求变得十分强劲，经济短缺问题从那时开始存在，并且一直没有得到很好的解决。这样，随着需求的持续快速增长，短缺问题也越来越突出，最终造成了那一轮的通胀。那时抑制通胀的手段就不仅仅是货币政策，还有明显的财政政策。比如运用财政手段补贴银行，降低贷款利率，以鼓励企业贷款。那样做的目的很明确，就是扩大供给。经过这样持续的混合政策手段的调整，到了1992年以后，贷款增长速度、工业增加值增长速度等，都有了明显的改善，于是到1995年末，通胀问题就基本上解决了。

按照清议的观点，如果不尽快增加供给，中国目前出现的通胀问题就很难在源头上得到解决，未来的情况可能仍然不乐观。事实上，增加供给的前提是增加投资，也就是说要调动储蓄这一未来消费，通过鼓励投资和扩大再生产的方式去增加供给，而不是任由储蓄搁置在银行里。试想如果这些储蓄一旦在未来全部用于消费的话，供不应求的现象是否会更加严重呢？鉴于此，清议认为，在调控政策上应该有所反思。毕竟中国经济仍然处于一个高速增长的过程中，只要政策上没有重大失误，就不会出现经济从快速增长突然变成低速增长甚至负增长的情况。因此应尽快加大混合政策调控的力度。当然，混合政策并不意味着只是货币和财政政策的混合运用，还包括其它多种因素，比如价格改革、产业政策调整等等。