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January 2008: A Bloody Month for the Stock Market

January saw a bloodbath in share markets worldwide as US recession fears kicked in. Chinese stocks were no exception to this global meltdown despite a positive note.

The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index (SCI) opened the year slightly higher at 5,265 and rose steadily in the first week of 2008. The SCI ended the week with a gain of 100 points, or 1.9 percent, from the end of 2007 to close at 5,361.57, aided by stronger volume and blue-chip buying. The rally was mainly led by non-ferrous metal, property and securities companies.

The next week saw a see-saw in share prices. After rising for the fourth straight day on Monday on the back of a rising yuan even as other Asian markets fell, the index slumped the very next day on news of a policy tightening to prevent land hoarding. A government circular urging local authorities to strictly impose the policy of collecting a 20 percent fee on idle plots hit the property sector hard. The index finished the week slightly higher at 5,484.68, with a smart rally by financial stocks.

But midway through the third week, the index tumbled 153.19 points, or nearly 3 percent, the sharpest in eight weeks, taking the cue from heavy losses on Wall Street and growing concerns over an economic recession in the United States. The plunge in Shanghai came after Dow Jones Industrial Average shed over 2 percent following Citigroup’s record fourth-quarter loss and lower US retail sales.

Next day saw another wave of selling after the People’s Bank of China again raised the bank reserve requirement, by 0.5 percentage point to 15 percent, the highest since 1984, to curb excess liquidity. The benchmark index reacted by losing another 138.98 points, or 2.63 percent. The index closed the week slightly higher at 5,180.51 following the turnaround in Hong Kong and Tokyo.

But worse was to come the following week, when shares opened with a 5.14 percent dive, sparked by Ping An Insurance’s plan to sell shares and concerns that the US subprime crisis would end up affecting the Chinese bourse through contagion. Banks fell hard, as did oil, property, steel, and non-ferrous metals. PetroChina, which accounts for about 25 percent of the SCI, fell 5.53 percent to 27.48 yuan, its lowest closing since its record high of 48.62 yuan on its debut in November.

The next day brought even more bad news as the index dropped 7.22 percent amid panic selling over concerns about the health of the US economy. The rest of the week brought relief amid a shares rebound, first after an unexpectedly early US rate cut and then on the back of an 11.4 percent year-on-year growth. The index closed the week slightly higher at 4,761.69, with banks and insurance companies showing signs of recovering from their losses earlier in the week.

The last week of January opened with another crash, the index sliding 7.19 percent to 4,419.29 following a sell-off after Friday’s Wall Street slump, ending the US index’s short-lived rally. Power and transport stocks led the avalanche as heavy snow triggered blackouts and transport crises in southern and eastern China. Blue chips also lost badly, with China Life, Ping An Insurance and Citic Securities, all falling by the daily limit.

The rest of the week saw slight swings, mostly following the mood on the Wall Street, before closing the week down 0.78 percent at a five-month closing low of 4383.393 points, 28 percent below October’s record high. The key index thus posted a loss of 16.7 percent for January, its second largest monthly drop this decade, as an uneasy calm prevailed over the market.

全球股市以暗淡表现进入2008年

2008年1月，由于受到美国经济面临衰退的担忧影响，全球股市一片暗淡表现。中国股市虽然在月初的开局表现良好，但依然未能在整个颓势中独善其身。

第一周   上证综合指数以5265点开盘，并保持了一周的平稳的态势。因为交易额强劲增长和蓝筹股交易的活跃，在本周结束的时候，上证综合指数比2007年最后一个交易日上涨了100点（1.9％），报收于5361.57点。产业方面主要的支撑力量是有色金属、房地产以及证券公司。

第二周   股票价格先扬后抑。受到人民币稳定升值的支撑，股市在周一还延续了自上周以来连续4天的涨势，完全不受亚洲其他国家股市下跌势头的影响。然而从周二开始，由于受国务院发布的关于进一步紧缩建设用地通知（通知规定对闲置土地征收20％的土地闲置费）的影响，地产股受到严重打击，并带动大盘下挫。但在金融股的积极带动下，在周五收盘时，上证指数还是站在了5484.68点。

第三周   由于受到美国华尔街股市下跌的影响以及对美国经济出现衰退担忧的增加，股票指数直降153.19点，跌幅高达３％，创下两个月来的最大跌幅。受美国花旗集团第4季度巨额亏损以及美国零售额下降的影响，道琼斯工业指数下跌2％，并由此带动上证指数的下跌。次日，盘中抛售行为更加严重，直接诱因是中国人民银行再次将商业银行存款准备金率上调0.5个百分点至15％，达到14年来的最高点，以进一步遏制流动性过剩问题。上证指数损失了2.63％，下跌138.98点。受香港和东京市场好转的影响，本周指数收盘时稍有回升，报收5180.51点。

第四周   受到平安保险抛售股票计划的影响以及对美国次贷危机将影响中国的担忧，股市状况继续恶化，股市跳空低开，开盘时便已下跌了5.14％。银行、石油、房地产、钢铁和有色金属板块均受重创。占上证综合指数25％权重的中石油股价更是下跌至27.48元，跌幅达5.53％，降至自2007年11月以48.62元的高价上市以来的最低点。第二天的情况更加糟糕，原因是市场上对美国经济的担忧而出现的恐慌性抛售行为。而在此之后，由于美国出乎预料地提前降息和中国2007年11.4％的高经济增长率，股票市场有所回暖。银行、保险股开始出现复苏的迹象，本周大盘最终报收于4761.69点。

最终   股市再度大幅低开，开盘下挫7.19％，跌至4419.29点。由于上周五华尔街股市在短期复苏后又回复大跌势头，由此导致中国市场抛售行为加剧。电力和交通股由于受到东南地区大雪的影响成为带动市场下挫的主要力量。蓝筹股同样表现不佳，中国人寿、平安保险以及中信证券都一度跌停。接下来，市场继续小幅波动，主要影响仍来自于华尔街股市。最终以4383.39的低位收场，创下5个月以来的新低，比2007年10月的最高点下跌了28％。至此，2008年1月中国股市下跌16.7％，成为10年以来的第二大月度跌幅。