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Stock Review in December 2007

Stock prices struck a dull note in the first week of December. Except for one brief spurt of 126.76 points, or 2.58 percent, midway through the week, the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index saw mostly minor swings before rebounding on the last day of the week by 1.13 percent to close at 5,091.76 points. The China Railway Group made a strong debut on the Shanghai Stock Exchange on the first trading day of December as its shares closed 68.54 percent higher than its initial public offering price.

Despite beginning the next week on a positive note by rising 1.38 percent, the index performed dismally for the rest of the week before rebounding again before closing the week. The release of inflation figures, showing the fastest price rise in 11 years, dented the confidence of investors, worried about a fresh round of tightening measures such as another increase in prime lending interest rates. Real estate stocks took a hit after the government said it would take more actions against speculative transactions. Banks suffered as the new definition of a “second home” would force them to cut back on their most lucrative housing loans.

But the index staged a comeback as investors turned their attention to the positive effects of the coming holiday season rather than the possibilities of more tightening measures. Shares of retailers and liquor makers rose, spreading cheer to property developers and bankers. Rising 1.01 percent, the index closed above the psychologically important threshold of 5,000 points again after three days of declines to close the week at 5,007.91 points.

Shares opened lower the following week but their showing improved later in the week. Following the general trend of the previous week, prices fell sharply, 2.62 percent, to 4,876.76, on the first day of the week, with financial and property stocks suffering the most in anticipation of more cooling measures by the government. The slide continued into the next day following the overnight slump in Wall Street.

But stocks revived thereafter on the back of bargain hunting, the confidence strengthened by a report that the companies owned by the central government would not sell shares of their listed units en masse to profit from the high price levels. Shares closed the week at 5,101.78, rising for the third day in a row despite the sixth interest rate hike of 2007. The central bank raised the benchmark one-year deposit rate by 0.27 percentage points and the lending rate by 0.18 percentage points to curb inflation and cool the economy, but investors believed it would be the last cooling measure for a while.

The week was also marked by the mega initial public offering (IPO) of Pacific Insurance, which raised 30 billion yuan (US$4.2 billion). IPOs raised a total of US$61 billion in 2007, thrice the floated value of the year before. Some 85 percent of this money was raised by only 12 major Chinese companies and banks. PetroChina alone raised 66.8 billion yuan (US$9.1 billion) on local markets after floating what became the world’s biggest IPO in 2007.

The benchmark index see-sawed in the last week of December before closing the year at 5,261.56 points; thus ending a spectacular year for the Chinese stock market, which saw unprecedented gains and worldwide interest for the first time.

The market opened the New Year slightly higher on January 2, with the index rising 11.25 points, or 0.21 percent, to 5,272.8 points. The uptrend continued through the rest of the week aided by stronger volume and blue-chip buying, with the index ending the first week of the year at 5,361.57. The rally was led by non-ferrous metal, property and securities companies. Olympics related companies have also begun to shine as the event draws nearer.

2007年12月股市浅析

文/程禾

第一周    2007年12月的第一周时间里，中国股市持续了11月的暗淡表现。大盘仅在周三的时候强劲上涨了126.76点，其余大多数时间都在进行着小幅调整，直到本周最后一个交易日，上证综合指数才又重新扬眉吐气，上涨了1.13%，收于5091.76点。中国中铁股份有限公司于12月3日上市，首日表现良好，收盘价比发行价高出68.54%。

第二周   本周虽然以1.38%的增幅良好开局，然而，随即转入低迷态势。最后一个交易日大盘才再度反弹。前一个月通货膨胀指数创下11年来新高，包括新一轮加息在内的进一步紧缩措施出台预期增强，给投资者的信心造成影响。本周政府声明将采取更多措施抑制投机行为，使得地产股再受冲击。银行股同样受到“第二套房”新标准出台的牵连，因为其回报丰厚的房贷业务将出现萎缩。然而，新年假期的来临使对市场的积极影响淡化了投资者对于新的紧缩政策的恐慌，帮助指数实现小幅回调。零售业及造酒业股票上涨，并将涨幅辐射到房地产和银行股。在连续三天下跌之后，本周最后一个交易日上证综指上涨1.01%，艰难地守住了5,000点关口，收于5007.91点。

第三周   股市跳空低开，后期逐渐恢复。延续上周的大盘走势，股市周一大幅低开，比上一交易日下跌2.62%，报收于4876.76点。金融、地产股受到政府降温政策的影响，损失最为惨重。受到华尔街股市大跌的影响，股市下滑的势头一直延续到第二天。

然而之后几天里，市场逐渐回暖。利好消息来自于一份报告，称中央政府所属企业不会趁价格高位的时机大幅抛售所持股票获利。尽管受到第六次央行加息影响，在连续三天持续上扬后，股市本周最终收于5101.78点。12月23日，央行再度将一年期存款基准利率上调0.27个百分点，一年期贷款利率上调0.18个百分点，为当前的中国经济降温。然而，投资者认为，这将是在近期内央行的最后一次紧缩措施，因此信心依旧。

本周股市中另一亮点当属太平人寿的股票发行，太平人寿通过IPO共募集资金300亿元，使得2007年IPO总额达到610亿美元，是2006年的三倍。其中，85%的资金是由12家2007年上市的大型中国公司或银行募得。仅中石油一家就募集到91亿美元，成为世界历史上规模最大的一次IPO。

第四周   作为12月的最后一周，上证综指在调整中缓慢上调，并以5261.56点给2007年史无前例的强劲中国股市画上了一个句号。

在刚刚过去的2008年第一周里，市场小幅低开，1月2日首个交易日上扬11.25点，收于5272.8点，上扬势头由于新资金的注入以及蓝筹股的热销而持续到周五。2008年第一周股市收于5361.57点。领涨股票主要集中在有色金属、房地产及证券企业。奥运相关的股票也因为赛期临近而开始大放异彩。